Promotion: Capital invested is at risk. Non-Independent Research / Marketing Communication. Attention is drawn to the disclaimers and risk warnings within this document.
BROKER NOTE BY JONATHAN PLANT
written 21ˢᵗ January 2026
Roundhouse Digital is a Singapore-based technology company with an operating business specialising in AI Agent deployment and digital infrastructure build aligned with an Ethereum treasury management strategy. A strategic holding in Satsuma Technology Plc, of 75m shares, gives potential investors exposure to a significant player in the UK Bitcoin treasury market along with someone integral to the development of that Company, namely ETHL’s CEO Matthew Lodge.
An experiencedmgmt1 and proven leadership team and network with £170M+ raised in digital asset-related placements, £2B enterprise value created, and successful delivery of scalable AI platform deployments, strategic consulting, and client integrations driving operational growth across AI and digital asset markets.
Roundhouse will look to mirror other crypto Treasury models in scaling the business, producing recurring revenue streams from both the operating business and Ether holdings and also unlocking potential long-term shareholder value. The Ethereum network has some unique features that is placing it at the heart of DeFi which should present itself as an opportunity for the Roundhouse community and network of developers, owners and entrepreneurs that have been at the forefront of digital asset, infrastructure and the AI-Crypto convergence
We will look to demonstrate how an already revenue generating AI agent business is looking to become a “Dual Value Creation” model. Recurring revenue from AI platform and consulting services should be scalable in this sweet spot for AI growth globally, alongside strategic growth through ETH reserve appreciation and management
An ETH Reserve is the next-generation treasury asset, offering high liquidity, inflationary hedge benefits over traditional Treasury Operations and institutional network effects which are looking to finance and build the bridges to mass adoption of non-fiat models. This looks to benefit from both the Flywheel effect of crypto Treasury financing, explained later in detail, and the decentralised finance (defi) platforms looking to build on the success and security of ETHereum-based networks, which provides a large pool of opportunity for sweating the yield on holding ETH... we will examine Digital Asset Treasury Companies below (DATCOs)
Headquartered in Singapore, providing structurally-efficient operations and seamless access to fast-growing Asian digital asset markets, alongside a beneficial max corporate tax rate of 17% and welcoming regulatory environment for cryptocurrency usage. Roundhouse should benefit from the zero CGT on crypto gains in Singapore, although staking rewards are treated as taxable income.
ETHL will be among the first group of UK-listed technology companies to implement a dedicated ETH treasury strategy, potentially setting UK industry benchmarks and actively bringing the regulatory backdrop up to speed with global competition. The UK really needs to speed up its stance and recent comments from Andrew Bailey suggest we will be in line with the US in a quick orderR17b. The Regulation section highlights how the backdrop is generally supportive of crypto but the UK seems to have Government support but regulators on a different fork.
Roundhouse will be demonstrating leading corporate ETH treasury techniques and adoption methods and looking for validating institutional demand for Ethereum as a reserve asset.
We cannot avoid the fact that Q4 2025 has seen some price turmoil in AI, tech and crypto markets in particular. As a result, there has been a negative period for crypto holders, shares associated with the asset class and DATCOs in particular. Globally planned Ethereum Treasury issuance has been paused with Roundhouse amongst them, primarily to protect shareholders from what was likely to be an instant negative flywheelAP17 which shall be explained later, but essentially is a negative feedback loop of ETH valuation and pressure on the share price, instant loss basically. This is useful in that it highlights the inherent riskiness of investments of this type; volatility means moves in both directions. DATCOs are about realising value over time but although crypto has an upside bias it is going to have periods of marked to market losses. A maturing market can handle this.
As such the order of this note has had its own transformation. There is a necessity to dive into the crypto market in general first, what the issues are, the pullback in relation to previous cycles and why there is on the balance of probability still upside to the crypto and Ether story.
We will discuss the state of the crypto market with cracks appearing within the long-term HODL accounts beginning to release some sizeable wallets which even though it coincides with a consolidation in prices might actually be confirmation of the Treasury model becoming both accepted but also smoothing the volatility in asset prices by absorbing new large blocks of supply. In order to understand an Ethereum Treasury strategy we need to understand the Ethereum network, the what, where, who and why etc. A comparison with Bitcoin BTC is useful and necessary given the strategic holding ETHL PLC has in SATS PLC. Indeed, SATS is a poster child for the UK regulatory environment causing stresses for DATCOs that wouldn’t occur elsewhere. To a certain extent we may be able to see this as a defining moment for UK DATCOs in thinking about funding avenues and regulators in fast tracking the rulebook into existence.
One of the key differentials for ETH is staking and the ability for yield generation so we will look at those and other Treasury Strategies we would expect the professionals to be participating in.
Market size and supply, price outlooks, players as well as the Regulatory outlook will all be discussed before a look at the potential numbers, sector metrics and valuations in reaching our conclusion to recommend an investment in ETHL at an opportune time for the market and business. Given the market slump in crypto and Tech pullback in the indices we have witnessed a return to volatility. As a potential investor you must consider this just as much as the Treasury companies themselves have to. The positive feedback loop known as the Flywheel can go into reverse. In this case, companies need to adjust their strategies and a falling market cap relative to falling crypto could see them buying stock back and selling the underlying tokens. This is not really different from any other ratio spread trading and will highlight the skills of your chosen Treasury plays. It may highlight distressed companies too where either or both their crypto and stock holdings may be trading at sub NAV valuations and vulnerable to a takeout. We will factor these opportunities and risk factors into our valuation model.
So, let’s begin with:
What is the primary reason for an Ethereum Treasury model?
An expectation that after accounting for volatility and adjusting for risk the expected returns for Ether have been positive. We would expect over time for the value of Ether to increase. A company holding them should see those increases in net asset value (NAV) reflected in a market capitalisation above the NAV which is reflected in a ratio called mNAVv3. An investor, even if they are diluted, should benefit from a stake in a growing NAV. Further, investors as a whole are encouraged to back additional rounds of ETH acquisition when conditions are seen positive for value gains, and are likely to back financing options such as equity issuance and convertible loan notes/bonds to keep spinning what is known as the Positive Flywheelv2
With the recent market activity through October and November, into early December, the reverse setup has occurred whereby ETH holdings drop into unrealised loss, share prices drop to reflect this and see sellers further depressing the share pricesd6,d11. When the mNAV drops below 1 the Flywheel is fully negative, the logic would suggest share buybacks and selling of ETH would occur. This would be the sign of a mature Treasury market and one where it is cheap to initiate. Many DATCOs have so far just held onto their ratio play as the central factor is the “inherent value” in holding ETH. Companies trading below mNAV are potentially a source of “good value” ETH if you were able to purchase them in a distressed state. Roundhouse ultimately may be in a position to either buy ETH outright, or stakes in undervalued Treasury companies, or even takeovers in crypto asset holding companies including ones that may have other assets that are undervalued in order to create potential for keeping that Flywheel positive. The model is effectively to develop or acquire operating businesses that support the accumulation and utilisation of crypto held in the Company's treasury...basically an open book for finding or creating undervalued ETH investments for Roundhouse to hold and realise value.
So, as ever, the investment has value at its heart and in this case, what is the value of ETH?
To determine this, we need to look at price, demand, supply, market size, players, regulation and an understanding of what makes Ethereum so desirable currently.
There is so much information and nuance on how Ethereum works and is developing that including it in the body of the note would make it unwieldly. A comprehensive notes section is followed by a large Appendix that will provide for more detail should you seek it. We do need to give you some areas of value to concentrate on but full reading of all sections is not necessary.
ETH v Ethereum – you will have noticed by now that I have been interchanging Ether and Ethereum. Ethereum refers to all things to do with the infrastructure and network and is the blockchain with ETH being the token/coin/cryptocurrency that works on it/powers it, namely Ether.
Ethereum was proposed in 2013 by a Canadian, Vitalik Buterin, to expand blockchain use beyond Bitcoin and launched in 2015 with 72 million coins; early financial supporters received most of the initial supply. Ethereum gives developers tools to build and run a variety of applications and layer things like smart contracts onto the blockchain. These apps are called decentralised applications, or dApps. This ushered in a new era of online transactions.
Buterin identified a TrilemmaAP1b of conflicts whereby only two of the points of the triangle below can benefit without compromising the third:
You can capture the chronology of Ethereum development in the Appendix but essentially it started out like Bitcoin with the security of the blockchain following the “proof of work” concept where validators competed to solve the equation for rewards. This as you will undoubtedly be aware from all the Data Centre noise is very power consuming and does not have a very green fingerprint. It also requires a lot of computing infrastructure. After a major hack Ether split off into two forms and the prevailing, dominant ETH coin, is secured on a “proof of stake” basis
Ethereum 2.0 — from proof of work to proof of stake
Often referred to as The MergeAP3, was a major upgrade. Ethereum needed to become more energy-efficient, scalable, and ready for the future. Switching to proof of stake helped by:
Cutting energy usage by over 99%AP2
Enabling the move toward higher transaction capacity
Laying the foundation for more upgrades
What changed after the merge?
With proof of stake, Ethereum is now secured by people who stake their ETH — instead of by people who solve complex puzzles using lots of electricity.
Validators are randomlyAP4 chosen to confirm transactions and earn rewards. This new system is cheaper, greener and more scalable, as well as more secure since no-one can dominate block validation. It is designed to ensure that validators will see a smoothed achievement of the annual percentage yield APY even if they aren’t immediately selected.
This whole concept of staking is central to why there should be a natural demand for ETH, in that you are being rewarded for securing the network as opposed to bitcoin where miners dominate the security process. All DATCOs can perform classic Treasury functions of earning yields loaning assets etc into the trad-fi borrowing and lending or derivatives markets but there are numerous advantages in keeping your ETH in defi. Roundhouse will be well aware of the higher yields available in the different ways you can stake your ETH in the digital space (see Appendix) but as always higher yields carry commensurate risk of loss/underperformance. Roundhouse intend to stake 80% of their ETH holdings and that would currently yield 2.8-3.1% in the conservative proof of stake modelAP7. APY moves relative to amount staked so the higher total % staked the lower the yield APY%.
This yield is generated and managed by a combination of elements namely: Gas, Burning and Slashing. Gas is the base fee that anyone using the network for transactions has to pay, this is then used to reward the validators on the network. Protocols have been agreed on to burn away the excess to keep the growth of supply limited. Slashing is a punishment of ETH stake removal for bad behaviours. It is classic Game Theory which motivates good behaviours.
Trilemma again
Scalability advantages: but what loses security or de-centralisation?
Major development, the FusakaAP5 upgrade implemented in Dec25
Fusaka aims to fine-tune weak point in blockchain trilemma
Ethereum was designed to prioritize decentralization and security over scalability and several rival layer 1 blockchains, including Solana and Sui, have focused on scalability to offer faster transactions to compete with Ethereum. Fusaka was originally supposed to be in the Pectra upgrade but they went for maximum testing insteadAP6.
This hard fork is seen as speeding up the scalability side of things without compromising security and actively looks to prepare for next stage issues. This should secure Ethereum’s place at the heart of defi and may act as a demand factor in steadying the pullback in price if not a catalyst in the next up-leg. As the supply section highlights below, recent base fee reductions now require scalability to come through hard and offset the inflationary staking issuance set up.
Two further points from Vitalik Buterin (founder):
De-centralisation - he worries over Blackrock "If institutions like BlackRock gain influence, Ethereum could go in the wrong directionAP8; basically, he’s concerned that large activity in centralised locations may put off the original users of the de-centralised system and reduce usage volumes,
Security: a belief that quantum computing is advancing so quickly it could crack “elliptic curve cryptography” (this secures blockchains such as Ethereum and Bitcoin) within three yearsAP9, before 2028 and the end of trump’s supportive tenure.
Although the fundamental benefit of Ethereum is its ability for adding extra functionality on another layer, layer 2 v the main network layer 1, which makes it attractive for multi users and systems, this too introduces security issues as the layer 2s often have their own accessibility issues. The recent Balancer Level 2 hackAP10 made headlines but it was due to specific vulnerabilities with their set up and the fact that a few other layer2s had copied the code
That brief background for Ethereum (more details in the Appendix) should now give you the pegs to attach the relevance of the sections below to and see the inherent dilemmas they produce. Ethereum has and is going through constant change in improving all three points of the Trilemma, now we need to look at the market dynamics in order to give you a sense of whether there is value in being involved.
Price of Ethereum
Price we can consider in terms of history, extrapolation, demand profile, supply factors particularly vs Bitcoin which has a fixed maximum. Regulation has become generally supportive across the globe but particularly in the US which has opened up a crossover from Traditional Finance (trad-fi) into Decentralised Finance (defi) which has had a positive factor on market size. Since BTC is fixed and ETH is essentially fixed in supply, as we will show below, if market size increases price has to follow
ETH Price Historymf3
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Ethereum (ETH) from its public launch on July 30, 2015, to November 5, 2025, is approximately 122.17%. This dramatic growth has resulted in a cumulative return of over 357,731% across the decade.
The calculation is based on:
Inception Date: July 30, 2015.
Initial Price: During its 2014 crowdfunding campaign and initial launch in July 2015, the price of ETH was around $0.311 to $0.92 per coin. Using upper bound of $0.92
Current Price: ETH is approximately $3,291.13 (using data from November 4, 2025).
Time Period: Approximately 10.25 years (from July 2015 to November 2025).
Root 10.25years x 3291.13/0.92 = root 10.25years x 3577.31 = 2.2217
Subtract 1 to find the compounding factor = 1.2217 or 122.17% CAGR
Portfolio Labs Chart1mf4
Chart2
Sourcemf4
As ETH has matured along with crypto in general reaching mainstream acceptance and increased regulatory vigour, the CAGR has slowed. If we measure it from the base of the current bull run in 2022 the CAGR drops to sub 30% (see chart1 above)
Despite all the volatility the updated returns chart to Dec12th 2025 has a negative 1 year return but equally when I started looking at this in October the price was $4200. So perhaps we shouldn’t be caught up in the short term and remain looking at the opportunity in terms of smoothed annual expectations.
We are going to use the 1year CAGR of 26.45% to Nov 5th 2025 for our central price growth assumptions. Similar to the Bernstein results, mentioned below in the Market Size Section, at 20% CAGR as a conservative measure. Such a low CAGR relative to the 10Y 122% should allow for the deep pullbacks we have seen previously as a lowball read.
When we run the model later scenarios will allow for lower returns and a return to long term run rates as a range guidance. As the IPO is coming in Jan26 we will also now assume a 0% yoy end of year ETH price of $3330 as the starting point.
Before we look at the recent turmoil just a little reminder of what effects ETH demand and supply:
What about demand factors?
Increased Demand for ETH: All transactions on the Ethereum network, including stablecoin transfers, require gas fees to be paid in ETH. As stablecoin usage and transaction volumes grow, the demand for ETH to cover these fees increases. The key here is the EIP-1559 upgrade which burns a portion of these transaction fees, which can increase ETH's scarcity and potentially its value.
Fueling the DeFi Ecosystem: Stablecoins are the primary medium of exchange and source of liquidity in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications built on Ethereum, such as lending protocols, decentralized exchanges (DEXs), and yield farming platforms. This extensive use solidifies Ethereum's position as the hub for decentralized financial innovation.
Establishing ETH as a Reserve Asset: Stablecoin holders and institutions often need a secure, permissionless, and productive asset to use as collateral within the DeFi ecosystem. ETH is uniquely suited for this role due to its decentralization and the ability to earn yield through staking, which strengthens its position as the de facto reserve asset of the "digital dollar economy" on the blockchain.
Attracting Institutional Adoption: Ethereum hosts the largest supply of stablecoinsmf5 (approximately 60-70% of the total market) and has benefited from increasing regulatory clarity, such as the U.S. GENIUS Act, which attracts major financial institutions. This institutional involvement in stablecoin and real-world asset tokenization on Ethereum further validates the network's importance and drives more activity.
Expanding the Network Effect: Stablecoins enable anyone with an internet connection to access a stable, dollar-denominated digital currency, especially in emerging markets with local currency instability. This broad, global accessibility expands Ethereum's user base and network effects, creating a powerful flywheel where more users and more activity attract even more users and services. Funnily enough Central Banks want us to use their CBDigital Currencies (CBDC) and as you will see in the Regulation section the Bank of England (BoE) have maintained ridiculous working limits on to Stablecoin Regulations.
Enabling Faster, Cheaper Global Payments: Stablecoins offer a more efficient alternative to traditional cross-border payment systems, with faster settlement times and potentially lower fees. This functionality, built upon Ethereum's robust infrastructure, highlights a strong, real-world use case that drives practical adoption beyond speculative trading. Remember Fusaka above...that has massively reduced the cost of the base fee on the Ethereum network. Primarily designed to drive volumes and scalability
Supply of Ether
We mentioned the effects of gas and burning previously as a move to proof of stake ensured that there would be a consistent supply of new Ether minted. You can see from the graph below that 2022 saw a tiny dip in supply which recovered and then a similar dip which has again recovered to pre-Merge 2.0 levels. Some suggest that the base fee reduction has resulted in a return to inflationary Ethereum supply metricsmf1
BTC is fixed at 21m and seen as a store of value whereas the original ETH was seen as open ended but ETH 2.0 has taken on a self-regulating nature of issuing Staking Rewards minus Gas Burning fees plus the Slashing Penalties that can be removed too.
As the Supply of circulating ETHER chart on TradingView shows, we have seen an effective flat line in supply now since 2023. This could support price breakout on the usage and demand factors we have highlighted...but there is even an argument that the supply could become deflationary (i.e. reduce supply).mf1
The introduction of EIP-1559 in August 2021 marked a turning point for Ethereum. This mechanism, integrated through the London hard fork, allows burning a portion of crypto transaction fees, thus reducing the circulating supply. To date, more than 6.1 million ETH have been permanently removed, representing a value of 18 billion dollars at the current rate.
However, EIP-4844 update known as Dencun, has allowed for smaller blobs to be created with lower gas fees. Paradoxically, this has resulted in a net lower total gas fee amount to be burned and seen the staking rewards issued to become inflationary at a net 0.8% annually. EIP-4844 is taking the first step forward toward Sharding. This will initially help layer 2 rollup solutions the most and eventually help Ethereum reduce its gas fees and onboard the next million usersmf6.
This is why the recent Fusaka update is seen as exciting as it introduces major optimizations to reduce transaction costs and improve network efficiency. By facilitating the adoption of rollups and Layer 2 solutions, Fusaka could revive blockchain activity, thereby increasing the volume of ETH burned through crypto transaction fees. When we discuss the Stablecoin usage in the market size section you can imagine that the more flexible, quicker, cheaper Ethereum with a natural high demand user could significantly boost usage fees and burning that could start to make supply deflationary and a natural boost to ETH value.
We haven’t really talked about slashing and why it worksmf2:
The effectiveness of slashing stems from core game theory principles. When a validator must stake assets to participate, they enter a system where:
Honest behaviour leads to steady rewards with near-zero risk of slashing
Dishonest behaviour risks substantial financial loss that exceeds potential gains
This aligns incentives for all participants. Even if a network processes billions in transactions, the cost of attacking it (losing billions in staked assets) exceeds the potential profit. The numbers simply don't work for attackers.
But the risks go beyond just capital loss. In delegated staking systems, validators are often responsible for their clients’ funds. A slashing event can trigger a loss of reputation, future revenue, and delegator trust, with long-term consequences that far outweigh the initial penalty.
As a result, slashing has shaped validator behaviour toward extreme caution. Professional operators invest heavily in redundancy, monitoring, slashing protection databases, and rigorous operational procedures. Many maintain insurance funds and compensate delegators when slashing occurs. This culture of accountability and resilience strengthens the overall security of PoS networks.
If you delve into the Staking section of the Appendix you can increase yields by sliding down the security slope and engage in synthetic staking where you swap your ETH for liquid tokens that can be deployed in numerous ways to enhance yields but often result in additional liquid reward tokens. Many fear this is a Ponzi schememf7 in waiting, even though most Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs) are legitimate, with one potential fallout being some “slashing” event that removes a large portion of this if it is deemed to be harming the credibility of the network. As ever it depends on doing the research and ensuring the ladder of rewards you have can be delivered to you by the vendor.
Price Factors for Crypto generally and key events:
Not only is Roundhouse exposed to BTC and ETH values but the space as a whole is dominated by Bitcoin flows and chatter for sentiment. We will look at the context of the current pullbacks in terms of newsflow and events in both assets.
We are looking at short term factors covering the October to December 2025 pullback and whether there are any factors that may change the longer-term integration of crypto, BTC and ETH in particular. There is suggestionmf10 that when things are calm ETH is starting to outperform BTC in price and flows...we need to see BTC anchor the space or an unlikely scenario that any renewed BTC weakness de-anchors from the rest of crypto. ETH may outperform but most likely will be dragged down too.
October has been colloquially known as Uptober due to a six-year winning streak for BTC and 9 out of 10 up years. 2025 broke the cycle
Bitcoin has gone down 20%+ seven times this cyclemf8.
The current up-cycle began in Nov22. There has been an obsession over the halving-cycle (every 4 years) within Bitcoin which resets rewards for miners but we are now much more in a mainstream asset period and perhaps classic waves & cycles for markets will begin to dominate. Indeed, given the concentrated nature of crypto wallets with early adopters many are faced with, the psychology of whether to cash in before it all goes to zero or stay the course for the de-fiat currency play that crypto and BTC was supposed to be, introduces the real fear & greed conundrum to the one-way bet crowd.
Source: TradingView BTC/USD Bitstamp chart
We are looking for signs that we are in a consolidation phase. In a traditional sense that is usually an obvious 3 wave pullback accompanied by some sort of momentum divergence, i.e. RSI or MACD higher lows vs lower low prices, often with a V-shaped pivot on the chart and news of panic selling. A full-on crash would have large surges downward with ironically more small up-days in comparison, the main point being the downward reversals when they come are an endless game of low liquidity pass the parcel and brutal losses for holders.
The chart above for BTC is sat just above its uptrend line from the 2015 low and its 200Wma or 4Yma at 56k. Traders are concerned also that the October high had a significantly lower RSI peak than the pre halving ATH highlighted...this is a worrying combination that the consolidation for BTC is not complete
Conversations and predictions have centred around crypto bears like Peter Schiffmf9 saying it is worthless (in ten years!!!) and challenging Saylor to a debate, to bulls saying it is going to be worth multiple times higher. There is a classic saying in markets of follow what they do and not what they say. To that extent when the Flywheel was positive you couldn’t stop MSTR/Saylor buying BTC and BMNR/Tom Lee buying ETH...the charts for ETH DATCO purchasing in August (Datco section) show just how extreme that was. In the current conditions purchasing has slowed but appears to be concentrating into large hands
Has another Crypto Winter started? If we are still in line with the BTC drawdown model then although the pullbacks are diminishing there is a proper flushing moment ahead...
There is a Forbes articlemf10 which is focusing on the period from April to November which is one of those periods where ETH has outperformed BTC. In fact, the chart below confirms this with Ethereum jumping into Aug by c.150% vs 20% for BTC. As we show in the Players section this was a period of huge institutional adoption of ETH with large inflows and a surge to almost $5000. If we are moving to a phase where ETH Treasuries in the mainstream, of defi particularly backing the growth in Stablecoins and numerous uses such as within a more stable NFT market as digital wealth looks for new scarce supply assets, then maybe ETH continues to catch up with BTC market cap.
Ether is volatile but hasn’t underperformed BTC since May despite the huge pullback. It has moved to a more stable supply mechanism and the high use high gas burning model is driving that. The biggest threat is the Ethereum network losing its status in the utility of defi and seeing activity crash. That is only a tail risk in my opinion as it is still the network of choice for Stablecoins which itself is going through a positive cycle of regulatory approval and set for potential expansion of use which feeds back to Ethereum network demand. (These topics are covered in the Market Size and Regulation sections below).
What are the market gurus saying?
Jurien Timmer at Fidelity is well known for his work on BTC adoption curves and price predictions. His generally supportive view is that we are consolidating with an ultimate support zone of $65-75k before a new up wave 6 develops. The upside may have a lower gradient and ultimately move towards $317kmf11
Another rational bull is Standard Chartered and even they have shaved their short-term upside but maintain their long term thesismf12. 'Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze': Standard Chartered halves 2025 bitcoin target to $100K, but keeps long-term bull case of $500k to 2030.
Bloomberg Intelligence focuses on mean reversion to the $65k zone and is also focusing on the BTC/Gold ratio sat on the mean already. Further flows into Gold may cause BTC switching
Markets at the end of the day are driven by Flows and the psychology of investor profit or loss.
Since the October 10th top, we have had a perfect storm of macro events and liquidity challenges. ...we have had the US Government shutdown, repo market strains and emergency window drawdowns, positive correlation across assets suggesting forced sellers for margin calls.
The October AI market sulk has spilled over into crypto with some suggesting it was down to the Powell remarks about being in the data fog suddenly unwinding the near certainty Dec rate cutmf13. Liquidity is the life-blood of crypto and risk-on markets. We received the 25bps in December from the FED and also an explicit $40bn of QE balance sheet management announcement suggesting the direction of travel is for liquidity. For now, though this is not enough to turn risk on aroundmf14. Institutions that had accumulated BTC through Spot ETFs quickly reduced exposure, producing more than $1.1 billion in outflows within days. Is this panic selling or more likely, in our opinion, to be a systematic rebalancing by portfolio managers who no longer believed the macro thesis when the Fed sounded vague.
This change in macro expectations effectively removed the first layer of support that had been holding Bitcoin above six-figure levels.
The second layer of the decline came from the behaviour of long-term holders. Wallets that accumulated bitcoin between $40,000 and $80,000 began distributing aggressively once volatility returned. They offloaded roughly 815,000 Bitcoin in thirty days, locking in substantial profitsmf13.
This pushed the price down to the average BTC ETF entry cost curve
Sourcemf15
And activity through to Dec25 has left BTC with a large overhang of recent purchasers in the red around the $90-95k level
The Options market has been dominating and the volatility spike in ETH ETF below in October through November is followed by suppression in December. That suggests a lot of the downside hedging is over and perhaps there is even volatility selling going on now expecting a tighter range of trading? Open interest has fallen too as we approach expiry in the 3rd week of December...With evidence the OGs are selling covered calls (i.e. they own the crypto and selling upside to enhance yield) that is creating asymmetric flows of net delta shorts...market makers need to hedge that by selling alongside. Downside protection puts were also bought through the pullback which leaves the market makers short gamma...creates large scale selling pressure for the market increasing as it falls until risk managers are comfortable. They are amongst a group that is sat on unrealised lossesmf16 and leaning on rallies
“When you already have the Bitcoin inventory that you’ve had for 10-plus years that you sell calls against it, it is only the call selling that is adding fresh delta to the market — and that direction is negative — you are a net seller of delta when you sell calls.”mf17
Follow the flows:
As of Dec 15th, ETF inflows for ETH had started to come in but a Friday tech sulk bled into Monday too and outflows still in the building. Ethereum's recent performancemf18 has been fuelled by a sharp rebound in spot ETF inflows. In late November 2025, U.S. Ethereum ETFs recorded $312 million in net inflows, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $257 million alone. This marked a reversal from earlier outflows of $1.42 billion in November according to Oak Research, signalling renewed institutional confidence. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's ETFs saw significant inflows, including $128 million on November 25 and $21 million the following day according to Ambcrypto analysis, but also faced outflows during the same period.
The contrast in on-chain activity is stark. Ethereum's inflows were largely retail-driven, as highlighted by the Spot Average Order Size chart from CryptoQuant, which showed smaller, emotionally motivated trades. In contrast, Bitcoin's accumulation was dominated by megawhales and sharks, who added 103k BTC and 45k BTC to their balances over 30 days, indicating a more strategic, long-term approach.
Ethereum's ETF-driven inflows and retail enthusiasm suggest a strategic rebalancing by investors seeking exposure to innovation-driven assets. The ETH/BTC ratio's rise and Ethereum's ETF performance indicate a shift toward altcoin season, with Ethereum as the primary beneficiary according to AInvest analysismf18. On the other hand, Bitcoin's outflows during its price correction and Ethereum's reliance on retail capital raise concerns about sustainability.
Institutional confidence in Bitcoin remains robust, with $732 billion in new capital inflows since November 2022, far exceeding previous cycles. This suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset, while Ethereum's rally may be more cyclical. However, Ethereum's recent inflows and whale accumulation hint at a potential breakout if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
Wallet movements...chart of the fish and Julie Moreno
Julio Moreno on Xmf19: “one of the most interesting datapoints indicating a Bitcoin bear market is Dolphin🐬balance growth. It is slowing down and crossing below trend.
Everyone is talking price, but the smart money is watching the whales... or in this case, the Dolphins🐬.
The slowdown in Dolphin Balance Growth (addresses holding 100-1K BTC) is one of the most compelling signs that the wind is shifting.
Peak Buying: These addresses were adding a massive 965,000 BTC YoY at the market top.
Current Reality: That growth has plummeted to 694,000 BTC YoY.
Why this cohort matters: It includes institutional players like ETFs and corporate Treasuries. When they stop accumulating, it signals a systemic pause in demand.”
What are crypto whalesmf20?
Manipulation:
Bull theorymf21 highlighting High Frequency selling behaviour around the 10am NY open; too frequent to ignore and zerohedge shares their view. Jane Street is suspected as they have been accumulating heavily lately into sell offs. Questions the macro nature of the selling?
Filed on December 9, the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETFmf22 would trade only between the U.S. market close and the next day’s open. The fund would avoid spot Bitcoin and allocate at least 80% of its assets to futures, ETFs, ETPs and options. A back-test using a night‑only strategy (buy on equity close sell on open) on the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) since January 2024 showed a 222% gain, compared with a 40.5% loss during daytime sessions, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
So there appears to have been excessive options positioning, short gamma hedging, high frequency manipulation and out of hours liquidity squeezing going on...no wonder there has been so much volatility!
The ETH ETF inflows are attracting interest with some claiming a “golden signal”mf23 is at hand when relative strength from whales goes positive. If this sees institutional follow through it may help slow the selling at least if not preclude a serious breakout
Panic headlines about flash crashesmf22-1: Christmas eve saw an unwanted gift of a $24,111 print on the Binance crypto trading exchange but on the BTC/USD1 pair and not on any of the main BTC price pairs. Holiday light volume in a Stablecoin USD1, the stablecoin launched by Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial, triggered all sorts of conspiracy theories but arbitrageurs quickly brought this back in line with where the real price was. In fact, it seems this may have been caused by the denominator as USD1 was offering an interest rate premium over USDT and saw huge demand pushing up the price of USD1.
Talking Heads:
MSTR and Michael Saylor do most of the chatter for BTC...
30% drop in BTC doesn’t matter we can handle an 80-90% drawdownmf24 (Has he just invited on the ultimate short against BTC...he’s picked a level that would be causing more than just MSTR stress out there!)
MSTR below 1x mNAVmf25 on Dec 2nd
This is a big test for DATCOs if the poster child cannot manage this drawdown. They are 5x larger than the last prolonged discount to NAV in the 2022 winter trading at 0.71 at its lowest. Cleverly MSTR have not allowed any covenants into their convertible bond issues so aren’t compelled to sell if they can service their debt repayments. The market will test them. Perhaps more alarming is the potential for MSTR to lose its inclusion in the MSCI and NAS100 indices. This would see a lot of actual selling of the stock and could crush them. Not surprisingly Saylor is being very vocal about the injustice of thismf26&27
MSCI has been mulling whether public companies with more than 50% of the assets on their balance sheets dedicated to digital assets should make it to traditional stock indexes. Saylor’s penned response included...” called the 50% threshold on digital asset holdings "discriminatory, arbitrary, and unworkable." Other industries like oil, timber, gold, real estate, etc., similarly concentrate their holdings in a single asset type, it argued.
The proposal's allegedly discriminatory approach towards one asset type raises concerns about the neutrality of MSCI’s indices, Strategy wrote in the letter.
In addition, the Bitcoin proxy said the MSCI's proposal would end up stifling investment in the growing digital asset industry, in direct conflict with the pro-innovation policies of the current U.S. administration.” Obviously, this decision on January 15th could be pivotal for whether we see further downside.
Tom Lee ETH supporter no1 believes that the Oct 10th crash was due to market maker stress which aligns with the hedging we have discussed, alongside hawkish Powell commentary. The supercycle for Ethereum is intact though and he points to surging activity across stablecoins, RWA tokenization, prediction markets, and emerging digital identity rails, most of which depend on Ethereum or its Layer 2 ecosystemsmf28.
Tom Lee bought 33,504 ETH for Bitmine on Dec 10th and reiterated his stance that ETH has already bottomed with BMNR already doublingmf29 its purchase size at these suppressed levels.
Ark Invest’s Cathie wood reiterates her $1.5m target for BTCmf30. Her previous target for ETH was a market cap of $20trn by 2030mf31. Contrast that with Christine Lagarde’s $0/worthlessmf31. Obviously, a biased game of predictions
Regardless, look at the Technical chart of Ethereum we have produced and the uptrend looks intact with the balance of probabilities leaning towards the current pullback being a consolidation phase before a year end seasonal rally.
chart for ETH 16th Dec 2025
This daily chart gives nod to the 2021 high ((I)) and Crypto winter low ((II)) in 2022. Price action since then is classically bullish with higher highs HH and HL higher lows on the pullbacks. It has all the signs of nesting for significant breakout which is a series of wave 1s followed by wave 2s in a fractal (repeat) pattern of decreasing size. The MACD in the bottom panel has exhibited the divergence of lower price lows but higher momentum lows at the pivot point, something which excites technical analysts. The shorter timeframe wave ((1))/((2)) white pullback has lower lows LL on both price and MACD which is the minimum for a rally and we have seen that. The question in the market is whether the Nov21st low is indeed the bottom. MACD has not only reversed but gone into positive territory although reducing as we speak, but overall reflecting the constructive nature of recent flows and probably Fusaka as we have discussed. If the rally from the low were to repeat from here, we could be looking at 3,700 equal legs as a short-term target even if we were to go on and make a new LL for the move. The horizontal green line is the low to watch at 2,621, which will decide our short-term fate, and that also sits just above the 200W (4Y) moving average at 2,453 currently, that crypto tends to watch for its halving sentiment. A bounce off that level with a LL for the move and HL on MACD would be very bullish although it might feel uncomfortable at the time.
Finally on Price we will take a quick look at risk-adjusted metricsmf4
Sharpe ratio measures returns for overall risk
Sortino Focuses on bad (downside) risk. Higher = fewer losses for the same return. This only considers downside risk (standard deviation) in its calculation, providing investors with a lens of how much downside risk they are accepting for the return. If the Sortino ratio is higher than the Sharpe ratio it reveals much of the volatility was to the upside.
Omega: Measures the likelihood of gains versus losses. Higher = more positive returns.
Caalmar: Compares returns to the largest losses (drawdowns). Higher = fewer big losses.
Martin: Looks at how returns hold up during long, volatile periods. Higher = more stable.
Ethereum may have deep drawdowns but they wipe them out quickly and more than compensate to the upside hence the overall outperformance relative to the SPY
On balance there is a two-way pull. The mega bulls are still there and Saylor may in conjunction with a sympathetic POTUS and SEC manage to find influence bear down and find a way of keeping DATCOs / MSTR in the MSCI and NAS100. That would be a huge sentiment boost and would likely see at least a counter-trend bullish inflow inspired move. More objective players like Standard Chartered’s Kendrick and Fidelity’s Timmer, who have both been bulls, remain so but with lowered sights.
Technical analysts are concerned over the technicals and need to see positives return but there is enough to draw the recent lows as stop losses for both trades and as a marker. If they hold then sentiment will quickly return to positive for a new breakout.
The positive flywheel has stalled with mNavs below 1 so what has been a transfer from the dolphins and whales into institutional hands could turn nasty if the DATCOs are no longer there and if they are forced to sell. Is the Fed’s pivot to actual QE enough to re-ignite liquidity. Will the equity rotation from AI into defensives, financials, industrial cyclicals, healthcare and R2k continue or will the SpaceX ipo boom be a line in the sand for risk on players?
Bitcoin is flip flopping around its ETF average inflow price of c.$90k so far. FOMO could easily see BTC heading for 100k+ and ETH $4k and we could hear the whirring of the flywheel again. ETH faces headwinds in periods of bond yields breakout with its staking yields in the 2.8-3.1% range. The options market seems to be trying to grind through the unrealised loss sellers and is trying to sell volatility and dampen down the panic. Historically crypto has interpreted volatility lows as a signal of reduced seller energymf33.
Crypto is supposed to be volatile but its risk ratios have been above the SPY due to the commensurate rewards you receive in the good times. This doesn’t mean that it is a blind buy but your starting point reference is deep into the negative side of price performance here. Yes, it could slide again but you aren’t buying hype you are buying into deflated hope. Remember with Roundhouse you are investing for a hodl return and further opportunities of value conversion alongside an agentic AI operating model not necessarily a quick ramp up in ETH, although that would be most welcome once Roundhouse has implemented the buying.
The ongoing selloff appears primarily driven by leverage unwind, not by structural deterioration. Ethereum (ETH-USD) continues to define the infrastructure layer of decentralized finance and tokenization. Current volatility reflects market recalibration, not reversal.
Market size
In general, the argument for crypto to make advances into trad-fi markets has a number of elements from digital convenience to de-dollarisation, to a general distrust of fiat currencies where paper money has been devalued multiple times with seemingly out of control spiralling global debts. A global M2 (broad money) Money Supplyms1 of c.$142trn is seeing hedging with hard assets as can be seen by Central Banks returning to Gold now it is an official reserve asset but also with Bitcoin, Ether and some other coins having regulatory backing there has been some large transfers into crypto from fiat holdings. The concept is how much of that $142trn will be hedged by Goldms2 $30trn + Cryptoms3 $3trn...there is a lot of potential upside for both and with global debt growing at CAGR since 2000 of 6-7%ms2 this path for alternative investment is only likely to catch up.
Another way of looking at it is what is the total addressable global investment market pie? Well, it is c.$1,000trn according to the LSEG at the end of 2023ms4 and with Larry Fink at Blackrock in both his annual letterms5 for 2025 to shareholders, and post the recent Q3 resultsms6, reiterating his desire and rational thinking that everything can and should be tokenised, then the opportunity for Ethereum would appear to have strong support from a potential usage perspective. Coming from just a $0.356trn market capms3 today (Dec16th 2025) Ethereum has the opportunity to make inroads into that $1,000trn market value as a replacement or tokenised substitute. Such activity uplifts would also be likely to increase the burn effect and push Ether into deflationary supply, thus effectively boosting ETH value even more as discussed previously.
The Ethereum network though has many attractions for its use and there have been some useful reports recently by Standard Charteredms7, Bernsteinms8 and some informative charts from The State of Crypto 2025 report by a16zcrypto.comms9
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick projects the market cap for tokenized real-world assets will surge from about $35 billion today to $2 trillion by the end of 2028 — about a 56x increase. Kendrick expects the “vast majority” of this on-chain activity to take place on Ethereum due to its reliability and network effects.
Sourcems9
The market cap for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), excluding stablecoins, is expected to expand sharply to $2 trillion by 2028 from about $35 billion today — roughly a 5,600% increase, according to Standard Chartered Bankms7.
"Stablecoins have laid the groundwork (via increased awareness, liquidity and lending/borrowing on-chain) for other asset classes, from tokenised MMFs [money market funds] to tokenised equities, to move on chain at scale,” (Kendrick)
He expects the "vast majority" of this activity to occur on Ethereum, citing its reliability. He said Ethereum has been operating for over 10 years without a mainnet network outage. "The fact that other chains are faster or cheaper is irrelevant, in our view," he said.
There has been the Balancer layer 2 issueAP10 we mentioned above but this shouldn’t really affect the confidence in the mainnet of Ethereum nor ETH price too much.
It is bad for Balancer as it had other people using its simplified code designed to make gas fees efficient...the Trilemma in full operation!
Tokenization refers to converting traditional assets into digital tokens on a blockchain, making them easier to trade and settle globally. Kendrick estimates that tokenized money market funds and listed equities will account for the largest share of the $2 trillion market by 2028ms7, followed by tokenized funds and other less liquid instruments.
“Of this $2 trillion, we see tokenised money-market funds (driven by corporate use of stablecoins) accounting for $750 billion; tokenised listed equities (once U.S. regulations become clear and DeFi solutions are unleashed) for $750 billion, tokenised funds for $250 billion, and the less liquid segments of private equity, commodities, corporate debt and real estate for the other $250 billion,” Kendrick said.
Kendrick’s RWA forecast matches with his stablecoin market cap projection in both size and timeline.
‘DeFi is finally starting to disrupt TradFi’
Kendrick said that for its first several years, decentralized finance (DeFi) mainly enabled crypto natives to trade, borrow, and lend among themselves. But the rise of stablecoin liquidity has broadened on-chain lending and borrowing activity across asset types.
“Stablecoins have created several necessary pre-conditions for a broader expansion of DeFi via the three pillars of increased public awareness, onchain liquidity, and onchain lending/borrowing activity in fiat-pegged product,” Kendrick said.
Lending and RWAs, in particular, are the two key areas where DeFi protocols can disrupt traditional finance, or TradFi, “If tokenised RWAs can be traded on DEXs [decentralized exchanges], this may provide an opportunity for disruption to stock exchanges. (In contrast, staking is unique to digital assets)...”
In DeFi, liquidity begets new products, and new products beget new liquidity, Kendrick added. “We believe a self-sustaining cycle of DeFi growth has started...”.
The graphs above also show how Ethereum is ironically giving some support for the dollar in a world where the de-dollarisation trade is rife. Already a top 20 holder on $326bn Stablecoin supply as at the end of September 2025. If the Citigroup prediction, in the graphic above, of $1.6-3.7trn by 2030 is achieved then that should cement the growth of the Ethereum network, fuel its price ascent and fill a funding hole for at least the US govt if not some other countries. It is this transfer from TradFi to DeFi that is the fuel for the crypto adoption models. With fiat currencies de-valuing with ever more printing, c.$142trn globally, you can reasonably assume Stablecoin growth is likely to continue its ascent.
Predicting Ethereum to hit $25,000 by 2035
The analysts at Bernstein said that valuing Ethereum as a tech stack is a "flawed approach," as its objective is to maintain security of the tokenized economy, and not maximize revenue. They expect ETH's value to follow the growth of economic assets secured on the chain and value ETH as a reserve asset of the network.
They project Ethereum-native tokenized assets, including stablecoins on both Layer 1 and Layer 2s, to scale from around $172 billion today to $5 trillion by the end of 2035. They also reiterated their prediction that ETH's price will grow from less than $4,000 today to $15,000 by 2030 and $25,000 by 2035 — implying a 20% 10-year compound annual growth rate for ETH.ms3
DATCO Players
Sourcems9
DATCos Deployed $42.7B in 2025, With Over Half of It Since Q3d5. Crypto DATCos spent at least $22.6 billion*(see chart) in new crypto acquisitions in 2025 Q3, by far the largest quarterly amount. Altcoin DATCos accounted for $10.8 billion* (47.8%) of this spend... Ethereum DATCos were the second largest spenders, with at least $7.9 billion in reported purchases in 2025. The majority of spending was in August, with at least $7.1 billion worth of ETH purchased. This occurred at the same time as ETH’s all-time high touch of $5,000 we showed above. Standard Chartered believe that DATCOs will own up to 10% of Ethereum quite soond3.
For most DATCos, their share price experienced a meteoric rise within the first 10 days after announcing their pivotd5, often hitting a significant high before receding.
In some cases, the highs in the first 10 days were able to hit double-digit multiples, with BitMine Immersion even reaching a +3,069% return.
The only significant outlier thus far is Metaplanet, whose stock experienced a ~100% bump in the first 10 days, but took 269 days before it really hit its peak return of ~6,200%. In 2024, Metaplanet (3350.T), positioned itself as “Japan’s MicroStrategy” and executed a hyper-aggressive BTC accumulation strategy. Notably, Metaplanet became a case study in capital-efficient BTC growth outside of the U.S.
Most DATCo stocks experienced significant share price movements preceding their launch, typically benefiting only early buyers or insiders. This has sparked controversy, leading the SEC and FINRA to investigate it as potential insider tradingR7.
However, the pumps have been short lived, with the majority of DATCo stocks tanking in the days following their pivot. For example, ALT5 Sigma was down -71%, 44 days after its pivot into a DATCo. Its holding of WLFI has also underperformed, and is down -56% from its launch day. In hype periods, where crytpo is going up and share prices are being dragged up to reflect the positive flywheel and higher NAV, it is easy to see why large premium exist but sooner or later the share prices must reflect the level of shares with a degree of rationality and reflect the economics better. Of course, we are looking at this in a drawdown phase so spirits are dampened...ETH suddenly back at $5,000 and 66% NAV uplift well the prices may jump significantly again
Roundhouse sits between the top two as it has an operating business but is openly going to be a DATCO operation too. If the conditions are in place, then you should expect them to look to spin the flywheel and raise financing to buy more Ether or Ether holding entities.
Top Ethereum Treasury Companies in 2025d6
Here are the top Ethereum Treasury companies to watch at the time of writing:
BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR): 3,967,210 ETH ($11.7 Billion)
They lead the institutional ETH treasury movement with nearly 4m ETH representing roughly 3.3% of Ethereum's total supplyd7. Under Tom Lee's chairmanship and CEO Jonathan Bates' leadership, the company pivoted from Bitcoin mining to focus exclusively on Ethereum treasury strategy. The company also reiterated plans to deploy its Made in America Validator Network — MAVAN — in early 2026, positioning it as a “best-in-class” staking solution designed to complement its ETH accumulation strategy.
The company's aggressive acquisition approach includes raising $250 million through PIPE deals and filing for up to $20 billion additional stock sales capacity (ATM)d8. BitMine's strategy centres on rapid ETH accumulation through capital markets while generating yield through institutional staking operations. They also bought back some stock (permission in July)d9 which looked a shrewd move in offsetting some of the stock pressure from a PIPE issuance. "In our road to achieving 'the alchemy of 5%' of ETH, there may be times when the best expected return of our capital is to acquire our own shares," said Thomas "Tom" Lee, Chairman of BitMine. This is central to the longevity of the model in developing flexibility in sub-1 mnav periods...being able to play the ratio both ways rather than the media panic about selling any of the crypto...those that risk manage well should be rewarded with higher mnav premiums in normalised trading.
BitMine eyes 5% of Ethereum supplyd10
Supported by institutional investors including Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, Bill Miller III, DCG, Founders Fund, Galaxy Digital, Kraken, and Pantera, Tom Lee-chaired BitMine targets acquiring 5% of the circulating ETH supply, currently equivalent to around 6.04 million ETH.
BitMine has added another 461,487 ETH to its stockpile during the turmoil, taking its total holdings to nearly 4 million ETH — currently worth around $11.7 billion — as of Dec 16th.
source d6
BitMine is currently the largest Ethereum treasury holder, followed by Joe Lubin's SharpLink and The Ether Machine, with approximately 859,853 ETH and 496,712 ETH, respectively. BitMine is also the second-largest public crypto treasury company overall, behind Michael Saylor's Strategy, which holds 671,268 BTC ($58.3 billion) — equivalent to more than 3.197% of bitcoin's total 21 million supply (as of Dec 16th 2025)d6
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): 859,853 ETH ($2.537Billion)
Sports betting and online gaming marketer SharpLink Gaming ranks second globally with 859,853 ETH at accost of $3.1billion mirroring how the DATCOs are sat on urealised losses in the table above. The company appointed Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joseph Lubin as advisory committee chair, providing strategic guidance for its treasury operations.
SharpLink has demonstrated the earning potential of ETH staking, generating over 9,241 ETH in passive rewards since June 2025 d12. The company raised over $425 million through private funding and increased its stock offering authorization from $1 billion to $6 billion to fund continued ETH acquisitions d13.
Bit Digital (BTBT): 153,546 ETH ($453.2 Million)
Mining firm Bit Digital executed a complete strategic pivot from Bitcoin to Ethereum, converting its entire corporate treasury from BTC to ETH by liquidating around 280 BTC to acquire additional ETH. Under CEO Sam Tabar's leadership, the company now holds over 150,000 ETH costing around $467.5 million.
This transition exemplifies the growing institutional interest in Ethereum's yield-generating capabilities over Bitcoin's passive store-of-value model. Bit Digital's strategy focuses on becoming a pure-play ETH staking and treasury company among public firms, betting that Ethereum’s staking yield and tokenization boom will outstrip BTC’s price growth.
Coinbase Global (COIN): 148,715 ETH ($438.9Million)
Coinbase Global stands as the first major publicly traded company to hold Ethereum as a treasury asset. However, the crypto exchange giant's approach differs from pure treasury plays—it integrates ETH holdings into operational functions while earning staking rewards through one of Ethereum's largest validator networks.
When Coinbase announced its multi-asset treasury strategy in 2021, it predicted that "more and more companies will hold crypto assets on their balance sheet." The company's dual-purpose approach provides both treasury yield generation and operational liquidity for its trading platform.
This year, we are witnessing the rise of altcoin-focused treasury strategies. Companies including SharpLink Gaming (SBET), BitMine (BMNR), and GameSquare (GAME) have adopted yield-enhanced treasury models.
IS crypto Treasury a sign of sophistication or normal Treasury behaviours in a new market?
Bears warn of the parallels with the roaring 1920s when investment funds created similar leverage products that ultimately couldn’t support the unwind/mean reversion. Warning signs re there with some DATCOs trading below mNAVd11.
Yield players lend out to good risks without credit or concentration risk to make guaranteed yield. Some actively trade but most large lenders are boring traditional plays and if they use futures will be vanilla collars etc which don’t see you lose the underlying crypto. Many companies are involved in crypto but are HODLs like crypto miner MARA
To understand how DATCOs play in the Treasury markets, fiat and digital, have a listen to the Jeff Park interviewd4 which I have reviewed in section 2) of the Appendix on DATCOs - What is a crypto Treasury and why ETH relative to BTC Treasury?
A list of peers to monitor for important strategy updates in the same space as ETHL:
BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies NYSE
SBET SharpLink Gaming NASDAQ
BTBT Bit Digital NASDAQ
BTCS BTCS Inc. OTCQB
VULT Vault Ventures AQUIS – blockchain and AI innovation with a trading signal engine for digital assets; was ETH +SOL Treasury but has sold down SOL to zero
SWC The Smarter Web company AQUIS – web design, development and online marketing accepting payment in BTC and running a BTC Treasury
SATS Satsuma Technology LSE subnet infrastructure investment, alpha token management, and direct revenue from AI agent services deployed across the Bittensor network with a BTC Treasury and 2nd largest raise for crypto purchase in the UK (core holding for ETHL) ...Satsuma’s purchase would involve acquiring over 1,000 BTC in one transaction. This move positions Satsuma among the top 25 public Bitcoin treasury companies globally, joining a growing list of corporations that view Bitcoin as a strategic asset for their balance sheets. They are currently waiting for prospectus approval for the CLN and share issue. The raise was oversubscribedmod6 by 63.66% raising £163.66m and 1097.29 BTC were used to subscribe in lieu of £96.875m in cash. Demonstrating the UK Treasury potential and the Institutional benefits of the deal with such an execution risk eliminated. (However, this exposed them to another risk discussed in Regulation and the Model)
ASTR Astrid Intelligence (formerly Cel AI) Aquis - health Tech with BTC Treasury and ATM for 575m shares above NAV
Regulation – supportive but US Govt shutdown is causing concerns as the looming November 2026 mid-term elections risk both a change of focus and Democrats weaponizing the Trump family’s crypto gains to delay legislation debates. The Trumps – leaky announcements, pardoning of the very person who has provided a platform for Trump crypto trades to process namely the pardoning of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recentlyR1...uncomfortable and powder keg. Trump maintains it was done to unwind Biden’s witch-hunt actions against crypto.
Some lawmakers, such as Senator Elizabeth WarrenR2, argue that new conflict-of-interest language is necessary to ensure that political figures and their relatives are prohibited from engaging in activities that could raise questions about their influence over digital asset policy.
Such measures would help insulate the legislation from perceptions of political interference.
However, the proposed language does not appear in the House-passed CLARITY Act, nor was it included in earlier Senate drafts. Its absence has become a point of debate, and the disagreement is contributing to ongoing hesitation.
Globally, there appears to be positive momentum on regulations and Central Banks, although favouring their own CBDC digital currencies, are trying to encourage a quick harmonisation of protocols.
China, however, has a total ban on crypto and has grown concerned recently about unofficial, unauthorised transactions and issued a warning about the criminal usage of Stablecoins. This re-iteration at the start of December triggered at least a re-test of current price lows in the cryptocurrency asset classR3.
Indeed, there seems to be some suspicions in BelarusR4 and India in recent days over the ease of flow of money in a digital world and potentially a flouting of anti-money laundering laws, particularly in IndiaR5. The Indians are prickly at the moment over digital identity scams and frauds so will be portraying an over-zealous stance just as the major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have been signing up to regulations there again. However, some see this as stealth capital controls and exit fees, a centralisation threat to the global platformsR6.
The SEC and FINRA were not happy with stock price moves ahead of a large number of Crypto Treasury move announcements. This is discussed in a financemagnates.com article in the notesR7
The U.S. GENIUS Act, passed in July 2025, established a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, accelerating their adoption across both retail and institutional markets. The next major legislative milestone is expected to be the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or Clarity Act, which could pass by early 2026, according to KendrickMS1. These regulatory developments should further legitimize asset tokenization, DeFi lending and borrowing, and decentralized trading.
How does the GENIUS Act impact Ethereum treasuries?
The Act provides regulatory clarity for stablecoins, most of which operate on Ethereum as we showed above in the market section. This drives increased network usage and transaction fees, benefiting ETH holders.
Even without the Clarity Act, Kendrick said clearer rules could still come if U.S. regulators — most notably the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — act in line with the law’s intent once the current consultation period ends in mid-2026.
The main risk, Kendrick cautioned, would be if regulatory clarity in the U.S. fails to materialize — a possibility if the administration cannot push through changes before the November 2026 midterm elections — “but not our base case.”
In fact, moves towards an end to the US Government shutdown on November 12th moved to speed up the Clarity Act and also return some liquidity to the risk markets. This passed the House in July 2025 with broad bi-partisan support but is now stuck in The Senate for a vote in 2026. It should progress but has two elements: with the Banking Committee overseeing securities, while the Agriculture Committee handles commodities.
Both committees have now published discussion drafts, but a unified package has yet to emerge. Lawmakers still need to reconcile differences before either committee can send a combined bill to the Senate floor.
One major technical dispute involves how the legislation should treat yield-bearing stablecoinsR8
Progress is being made with as of Dec 9th the CEOs of Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) scheduled to meet with both Republican and Democratic senators this week to discuss legislation focused on crypto market structure. Specific topics they plan to cover include bank permissibility, as well as payment of interest and illicit finance, the spokesperson noted, adding that "meetings between our CEOs and lawmakers happen oftenR9.
Moody’s have proposed a ratings framework for Stablecoins based on the quality of their underlying reservesR10
SEC no longer has negative crypto discussions on the agenda for 2026R11, although unlike Gary Gensler the new Chair Atkins is exceptionally upbeat about creating the positives for Crypto in 2026R12. The gap between these releases on priorities for the SEC emphasises an expected shift from being anti-crypto to one actively encouraging innovation.
The DATCO spikes have sparked controversy, leading the SEC and FINRA to investigate it as potential insider trading as we said above. SATSuma Technology had a similar problem in the UK market in the lead up to their 2nd Convertible Loan Note of game changing size but with a strike of 1p for £163m resulting in some subsequent jaw dropping falls for those who paid up into the 14p region when including warrants and other CLNs c.19bn shares at 1p were to be convertedmod7.
This CLN and its size has actually introduced other regulatory risks because the rules are so slow in coming through. By issuing significant amounts of stock to new investors and presumably being a potential fundamental change of business, the company has potentially fallen into RTO reverse takeover rules territory so is having to work with the FCA to quickly produce a new prospectus and change their advisers/find new auditors and appoint a sponsormod8 which they have now donemod9. Unfortunately, and I am speculating without the facts, there is a new set of prospectus rules due for release in January 2026 for the UK and retail facing issuers which may have added to the listing confusion and requires tidying up for crypto related issuesR13.
SATS had made massive progress in the DATCO world and had secured a predominantly professional investor/institutional client backing for their huge CLN to buy Bitcoin offeringmod7. Issuing a CLN before the prospectus is approved is in the rules but the dialogue between company, auditor and FCA broke down somewhere. When the CLN ironically morphed into an asset backed one on efficient settlement of a major part in Bitcoin, as it was here and something which should have been seen as a success for the UK market, you suddenly have an asymmetric risk on the asset side if the prospectus is pushed past the Long Stop date. If anyone wants to pull out, they need to be paid back. The crash in BTC has left SATS with a loss on the BTC, which they have announcedmod10, that they have had to lock in to generate enough cash to remain a going concern by paying back those no longer participating. Concerns remain whether still a going concern if the prospectus is still not passed by Dec 30th 2025mod11. Seemingly beyond their control, or at least in mitigation due to inadequate or confusing UK rules, SATS became a forced seller of BTC when they would ordinarily have had a mNav issue to deal with. The fallout for Roundhouse valuation will be considered in the Model section.
In the UK companies must have an operating business otherwise likely to be classified as an unregulated alternative investment fund and face issues with dealing with the publicR14. Crypto trading must be proportionate to core business with a clear strategic rationale and may include new material investment into the core business. We will show below how 25% of the IPO raise for ETHL is going to developing the core business which could be throwing off lots of cash to feed the Treasury business and crucially stay the right side of the regulations. This suggests Roundhouse may explore more traditional methods of finding value opportunities until the UK defines the process for CLNs within the context of a DATCO.
The UK has finally relented on retail offerings beyond the professionals to allow ETNs on BTC and ETH to be available to retail but stops short of ETFs and derivative/geared type instruments so far.R15 However, if you try to deal in them you will still most likely meet the “Professional Investors” only requirement as many providers such as Interactive Investor, AJ Bell and the likes of IG are reviewing their policies. Another reason to look at DATCOs!
Europe has MiCaR16 and given their usual procrastination on legislation this puts the UK under the pump even more to speed through a legislative framework.
The Bank of England pushed ahead with Stablecoin legislationR17a with a new proposal having listened to feedback. They appear to be staying with a personal limit of £20,000 and £10m for companies but understand that commercial requirements may need a higher threshold and will listen to presentations of genuine business needs. They recommend the use of The Digital Securities Sandbox (DSS) which facilitates the use of developing technology such as distributed ledgers in the issuance, trading and settlement of securities in the UK. Andrew Bailey had been very vocal about the benefits previously of being inline with global rulesR17b.
However, the proposed UK framework has come under scrutiny from lawmakers who want Rachel Reeves to demand better for the UKR18. In a letter addressed to Rachel Reeves, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, first seen by Bloomberg, the signatories warned: “We are deeply concerned that the UK is drifting towards a fragmented and restrictive approach that will deter innovation, limit adoption, and push activity overseas.”
“To remain globally competitive, the UK must ensure its stablecoin framework is benchmarked against leading international models,” the letter added.
We have included an extract in the Appendix from lawyers Richardson LissackR19 who have concerns over sector peer SWC (SMARTER WEB COMPANY) but in the context of operating as a DATCO versus the draft definitions of crypto activities within the draft of UK rules when companies are marketing a proxy exposure to crypto when direct exposure in the UK is banned. Subsequent rules are still confusing even for the retail sector.
Obviously, the ISA providers can now offer exposure to retail clients but have resisted doing so other than to professionals. Not surprisingly given their guidance from the FCA and how to manage their clientsR20 and the faq some crytpo ETN providers have releasedR21, the UK platform is slow and disjointed. If you do decide to invest you have none of the normal financial protections and crypto derivatives are still banned which is something a sophisticated market depends on for efficient pricing as we discuss in the DATCO treasury section
Modelm1
A Hybrid model: Operational Excellence + Strategic ETH Reserve
Immediate stability, long-term value
Our thesis: AI infrastructure firms with ETH reserves merge operational growth and asset appreciation, creating sustainable long-term alpha for investors.
The ethos is to be at the intersection of digital assets and AI; provide enterprises and investors with access to AI agent infrastructure—scalable platforms and automation systems powered by next-generation Ethereum technologies.
This combines AI Agent Infrastructure Services:
Platform licensing, AI agent deployment, and subscription-based conversational AI solutions
Revenue model: Platform licensing, deployment fees, and subscription services
Enterprise AI Solutions & Consulting:
AI strategy consulting, custom AI development/bespoke agent deployment, integration, and ongoing enterprise support
Revenue model: Consulting fees, implementation services, and ongoing support
These companies represent a distinct investment category. Roundhouse provides institutional investors with structured access to this opportunity—leveraging portfolio construction, yield optimization, and treasury-backed AI infrastructure to create durable long-term value.
Treasury Selection (1)
Identifying technology companies with robust Ethereum reserve strategies, sustainable capital structures, and disciplined treasury management aligned with long-term institutional value creation.
Portfolio Construction (2)
Systematic allocation across diversified Ethereum treasury and AI infrastructure holdings to optimise exposure while managing concentration and correlation risk.
Capital Efficiency (3)
Applying strategic leverage and capital structure techniques to enhance ETH-denominated returns within institutional-grade risk parameters.
Risk Distribution (4)
Diversifying across regulatory jurisdictions, treasury allocation models, and operational strategies to minimise idiosyncratic exposure and preserve capital stability.
As a fintech company specialising in digital asset services, Roundhouse Digital is well-positioned to integrate Ethereum into its corporate treasury, strengthening its competitive edge in the rapidly evolving blockchain economy.
The Treasury will principally manage ETH holdings. ETH is one of the 2 cryptocurrencies recognised by the FCA and LSE as suitably mature and stable for institutional and market use. ETH is one of the most liquid asset classes in the world with a market capitalization second only to Bitcoin ("BTC") as at the time of this document
Roundhouse will leverage between value arbitrage of mis-priced Ethereum or AI assets, efficient and complementary yield strategies and traditional Treasury opportunities where there are mis-pricings
Metricsmgmt1a/b: £1.1m raised at IPO issuing 27,671,250 new ordinary shares at 4pence...less costs...with a retail WRAP offer of 12,500,000 at 4pence to potentially raise approximately £500,000 (Note the company announced on first day od dealings that no shares to be issued via the WRAPmgmt1c)
£500k allocated for operating growth with the balance to be held in Treasury (Ethereum investment plus staking and fiat yields)
- Allocation:
- £200K for general working capital purposes
- £200K for hiring additional team members including senior blockchain protocol engineers, machine learning research engineers, and user experience engineers
- £100K for marketing activities including trade events
- The balance to be retained in the Treasury until such time as required for day-to-day operations... the Crypto to Fiat currency ratio will be a target of 75%/25%
- Primary Objective: Scale services, enhance delivery, and maintain agility
- Secondary: Build ETH treasury as a core asset
Strategic holding in SATS – Satsuma Technology – 75m shares valued c. £1m
Roundhouse comes to market on Aquis withmgmt1a Sep 2025 accounts)
c.$100k of cash (125k Singapore dollar at 1S$= $0.79 30th Jan 2026)
122 ETH = c.$420k (S$640k*0.79/Close ETH price (30/9/25 of $4,145.3))
$250k revenues in last 10 months AI agent business (scaled up to $300k 2025 FY) ...we will follow the usual hockey stick assumption for growth for the operating company, The model metrics are represented in the tables below
The valuation of ETHL comprises a DCF of the operating company, ETH Treasury returns and movements in the SATS strategic asset
A central case (amongst the scenarios) of an assumption of smoothed ETH price growth at the CAGR of 26.49% we highlighted above in order to calculate estimated unrealised gains per year in ETH held in the Treasury, along with the addition of operating company cash flow generated, split 75/25 crypto / fiat, averaged at a rate of 50% to allow for it being earned over the year regularly and valued at the smoothed average of the Price gain on the year.
The full 75% will be added to carried forward ETH at year end as sales are not anticipated unless cashflow demands it.
The 25% fiat shall be added to the c/f cash and its use in the day to day running of the business again assuming it is earned at 50% value but earning for full 12months...this will be subject
In terms of Ether Yield the rolling balance of ETH shall be assumed to have been staked for the fullyear but at 80% max staking; the 75% of opex revenues amount invested in ETH shall be assumed to have been earning for the full 12 months each year but calculated at an average of the price appreciation for the year to smooth the ETH purchase price, and all yields are subject to tax
Staking yields will be subject to Singaporean corporate tax, at 17% to be conservative, in the year earned.
There is a 75/25 ratio of crypto to fiat so that fiat balance needs to be deposited at maximum rates which they believe to be in the region of 4-5%.
Assuming operating expenses of $500k p.a and 17% tax rate on the operating business although in practice small and new company schemes make this lower in practice.
DCF of unrealised gains +DCF of staking yields after tax + DCF of fiat income after tax + DCF of SATS gains (assume 0% CG tax if held in Singapore wrapper) + DCF of after-tax operating company = DCF value in the table below
Tax – movements in ETH will be recognised as unrealised gains (losses) not subject to tax until the ETH is sold under normal circumstances but Roundhouse is registered in Singapore and they rely on advice that capital gains from their ETH holdings will be tax free. The readily available literature from the Government of Singapore suggests this is the case as long as they don’t over-trade the ETH. This means we will not have to create a deferred tax reserve. It also means they can probably take advantage of price volatility to lock in outsize moves and/or arbitrage if they want to if no tax payable on realised gains. If you are deemed to be trading rather than a HODL then the gains are classified as incomem3. Roundhouse’s intention is to hold Ethereum for value realisation so we should be able to ignore tax on the ETH holdings.
Staking income is subject to income tax. There are various exemption schemes for smaller companies but to be conservative we will assume 17% max tax rate applicable.)
The strategic asset in the Satsuma Technology arose when SATS was still known as Streaks AImod4 and was a subscription for 75m shares at £0.001 for a consideration of £75,000 on the 21st Nov 2024. This represented 16.53% of the ordinary shares at the time of issuemod5. On Jan 14th 2025 Streaks AI invested £250,000 in a round of investment into Roundhouse Media Pte Ltd as they re-organised their ownership structure with Pioneer Media / Pioneer AI. Satsuma still has this 14.68% stake as it was at the time and has now placed it on the list of assets for salemod10. The model will have to allow for the binomial outcome of continuing as a going concern with a reduced ratio BTC Treasury and currently with BTC below purchase price to potentially going into insolvency. We will just model the potential BTC scenarios of the outstanding BTC holding to smooth the insolvency/going concern dilemma of the SATS holding.
Valuations
We should be able to add up the values of the operating business, Treasury operation and yield generated on digital and fiat balances to give us a DCF for the business.
Given the current volatility and panic over long-term model we will run the DCF for a combination of parameters from low-ball to high in terms operating business earnings, ETH price assumptions, BTC assumptions for SATS which should move relatively along same profile as ETH, inflow from raises for asset stripping or direct ETH purchasing, and assuming 3% constant staking yield.
The DCF scenarios are summarised in the table below:
We have allowed for scenarios which include the heavily dampened CAGR for ETH growth and also BTC ranging up to levels that would reflect a return to the most bullish forecasts for the crypto space in the next five years. The operating business is modelled from peak growth at outset through to more aggressive hockey stick growth patterns associated with the sector.
Due to the complex binomial nature of the SATS scenario we have simply modelled the outstanding BTC holding through the various BTC price growth scenarios and applied any annual uplift through the numbers. If they remain a going concern then there is a higher degree of certainty in upside and the expectation of further flywheel action but obviously a negative outcome would remove this. We believe that the scenarios adequately cover the binomial nature and allow for uplift once the future has revealed itself.
We have used a 30% discount rate which allows for the combination of AI and crypto businesses especially since if Ethereum gains the expected traction this will dominate revenues eventually and has a high standard deviation of returns.
In all scenarios we are assuming that BTC growth is lower than ETH.
There is an expectation that ETHL may use its stock over the next five years to raise increasing amounts of funding as its NAV grows so we have modelled for the fully paid to grow from 271m at IPO to 380m and the likely existence of up to 50m options and 50m warrants to be issued in lieu of corporate actions. This gives a high degree of confidence that there is fully diluted value in roundhouse and our 18month price target of 40p to sit between the scenarios 1 and 2 in the table above.
Coming to market at a market cap of £10m would be a high mNAV to start with even if ETHL times its purchases of ETH perfectly. This reflects future execution prospects as well as the expected growth in the operating model. As we have shown in the valuation table above there is scope for further performance from IPO but undoubtedly needs some momentum into the Ethereum side of things to drive positive sentiment into the DATCO model again.
The DATCO sector has a focus on mNAV which is the measure of whether the capital structure, sentiment and trust in the management as reflected in the share price, provides for a premium in market cap relative to crypto generation. If so, this should create a self-fulfilling Flywheel effect where there is an incentive to raise money to purchase ETH in this case. Ideally there will be an element of premium to market cap in the strike price of CLNs or share sales. I would expect Roundhouse to look to put an ATM together before they do another PIPE and will have a case study re large scale CLNs when SATS finalises its dealings with the FCA over the Prospectus delays and other issues.
In the meantime, ETHL post-IPO could be receiving funds at a depressed ETH price and could potentially have an advantageous entry level.
We mention SATS and that particularly has a binomial event ahead now...they have until Dec 30th before the final Long Stop date for the CLNs matures. Having already received £163m proceeds they settled £100m in BTC. At the time they had 100% acceptance and conversion at 1p with no execution risk. The push back on the Long Stop dates and no prospectus agreement has left them asymmetrically exposed to movements in BTC against the simple repayment of fiat cash proceeds. They have taken the decision to take a hit on half of the BTC in order to pay back the 50% of investors not proceeding with the CLN if it ever does go aheadmod11. This still leaves them with a potential going concern issue should they not agree with the FCA on a prospectus and they have to return the balance of outstanding consideration. This leaves us with a valuation headache as we have either a reduced size BTC DATCO or we have an insolvent asset. Ironically, we have a type of asset that is vulnerable to a discounted takeover that we suggested ETHL should be looking for. There are some interesting players in the CLN2 list that might be considering the situation.
Given the delay to this note we have now seen SATS given the go-ahead to publish its CLN prospectusmod12. This leaves them with £11.8m in cash and 620 BTC (which is c.£40.3bn at Dec 30th 2025 prices of $87900 BTC and £/$ 1.35) providing for an asset base of c.52.1bn and issued share capital of 11,203,900,200 ordinary shares. At current share price of 0.3GBp this gives a market cap of 33.6m and a mNav of 0.645 which reflects the market uncertainty currently. I think it is appropriate to keep the upside on the SATS holding marked down for now until the new strategy has time to present itself. As outlined in the prospectus announcement...strategic transition... As detailed in the Company's strategy within the Prospectus, the Company intends to develop Bitcoin-based revenue lines, including Bitcoin staking and decentralised AI operations, to generate accretive cash flow that supports the continued accumulation of Bitcoin in the Company's treasury. This operational strategy will be implemented organically and through acquisitions. It is designed to complement the Company's treasury policy of holding Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset. This appears to suggest there is little flexibility within current FCA rules for acting as a pure DATCO but allowed if acting as complementary to an operating business. Overall, this suggests a period of reflection required on SATS future upside until the rules clear.
Until ETHL progresses to market and initiates their strategy they don’t really have any crypto metrics to speak of such as Treasury net asset value per share TNAVPSv3, coins per share CPS or a useful mNAV. The end of the DATCO section 2 of the Appendix discusses what to look for when they do.
On a traditional basis given the AI operating business:
Using Dec 30th £/$ 1.35
EV / revenues of £9.1m / £0.23m = 39.57x for TTM 2025 earnings
And £9.1m / £0.854 = 10.65x for 2026 prospective revenues base case model parameters.
These would appear to be reasonable given current AI sector trendsv6 where AI startup revenue multiples are high and uneven. In the current market, most AI companies trade in the 10x–50x revenue range, with the median typically around 20x–30x. The exact number depends heavily on stage, growth rate, and proof of defensibility.
Recent venture data by Aventis-advisors shows that in late-stage rounds, median revenue multiplesv6-1 have climbed to roughly 24.2x, in a range of 3.6x to 225x, but a considerable premium to the equivalent Saas studies by Aventisv6-2 which as of Sep 2025 had a median multiple of6.1x.
This suggest scope for Roundhouse expand that EV/Revenue multiple for 2026 towards 20x as the revenues come through with ETH progress, if it comes, enhancing this materially, with any SATS improvement an added bonus.
Given the mNAV situation for the sector let’s look at how to make money with a diluted DATCOv4?
Invest in growth: The core principle is that dilution is an acceptable trade-off for overall company growth.
You make money with a diluted Digital Asset Treasury Company (DATCO) if the value of your reduced stake in the company increases enough to be worth more than your original stake. This happens when the company's overall value grows significantly, for example, by using new capital to buy more digital assets, and can be further enhanced through strategies like issuing shares at a premium to NAV (Net Asset Value) an ATM, or generating additional revenue from staking and lending.
A DATCO may issue new shares to raise capital to buy more digital assets. While your percentage ownership decreases, the total value of your smaller stake can increase if the company's asset base grows faster than the number of shares.
For example, a 1% stake in a company with $200 million in assets is worth $2 million. If the company issues new shares and now holds $250 million in assets, your stake becomes 0.86% but is now worth $2.15 million, an increase in value. Ideally you would want to participate in all the rounds in a positive flywheelv2 but you don’t have to.
Benefit from the premium: A DATCO can issue new shares at a price above the Net Asset Value (NAV), a strategy known as a "premium to NAV".
The company can use the capital raised to buy more digital assets, increasing the asset per share for all shareholders, including those who were diluted. Remember though at the moment a lot of the sector is trading at or below NAV. This makes it hard to raise finance without a compelling model. Roundhouse would mainly be exposed to further downside in ETH, which we have shown should be short-lived, but is not without risk.
Generate additional yield: DATCOs can earn extra revenue that adds to shareholder value, even with dilution.
We have mentioned Staking rewards that can earn yield by participating in proof-of-stake networks as well as Lending programs where the DATCOs can loan digital assets to institutions to earn interest.
Strategic partnerships: Partnerships with other blockchain projects can also generate revenue.
The emergence of “short fiat, long scarce assets” as a general corporate investment strategy speaks to a broader macro narrative. In a world of high debt and money printing, solely being in cash or bonds may be risky. This has led to many forward-looking entities to opt in to harder assets—from real estate to commodities to digital assets. This isn’t speculation anymore it is structural transformationv7. This view mirrors mine and is referenced from the Fidelity Digital Assets Team which has a few pages summarising the longevity of digital assets.
Valuations can go down as well as up and particularly with cryptocurrency as the Pricing section shows the metrics.
What are the particular risks of investing in cryptocurrency?
While cryptocurrencies offer many benefits, it’s important to understand the potential downsides, especially regarding the outsized impact of large investors known as crypto whales. The landscape of crypto can change quickly, so it's essential to be fully aware of the risks.
Price volatility: cryptocurrency prices can change rapidly and unpredictably, often due to market speculation and sentiment. It’s possible for the value of your assets to drop significantly in a short period (they screen well because you have been rewarded well for holding on to them)
Regulatory uncertainty: Governments are still developing their approach to cryptocurrency. New regulations could affect the value and use of certain cryptoassets as we are seeing in Belarus and India.
Security risks: while blockchain technology is secure, your crypto can be vulnerable to theft or loss if your private key is compromised or if you use an unsecure platform. Always use a trusted service to manage your crypto.
Scams and fraud: the decentralised nature of crypto can make it a target for scams, fraud, and phishing schemes. Always do your research and be cautious.
Strategy‘s transformation from enterprise software company to Bitcoin treasury leader provides the most detailed template for executing aggressive crypto accumulation strategies. Under CEO Michael Saylor’s leadership, Strategy (MSTR), has created a replicable playbook that other organizations now study and adaptv5.
Continuous capital raising forms the foundation, utilizing at-the-market equity programs, convertible debt offerings, and multiple classes of preferred shares to generate dedicated Bitcoin acquisition funding as discussed earlier.
Bitcoin-per-share growth replaces traditional financial metrics as the primary success measure. Under this framework, share dilution becomes not just acceptable but desirable—provided it results in increased Bitcoin per outstanding share. This counterintuitive approach has enabled Strategy to maintain premium valuations, with its fully diluted stock regularly trading at 1.6x its underlying Bitcoin net asset value but has actually slipped below 1 in Dec as we highlighted above. BMNR is a direct ETH comparison now and obviously has yield measures to factor too.
A simple crypto mNAV calculationv1:
– 100 million shares outstanding
– Stock price: $15 per share → Market cap: $1.5 billion
– Bitcoin holdings: 10,000 BTC at $100,000 = $1.0 billion
– Outstanding convertible notes that could convert to 25 million additional shares
– Stock options/warrants that could add 5 million more shares
Simple mNAV = $1.5B ÷ $1.0B = 1.5x
Equity investors currently pay $1.50 for every $1 of Bitcoin.
Fully Diluted mNAV = (130M shares × $15) ÷ $1.0B = $1.95B ÷ $1.0B = 1.95x
If all convertibles, options, warrants, etc., convert to shares, investors would effectively pay $1.95 for every $1 of Bitcoin. In practice the conversion would only take place if the NAV was going up or if there was some event that would promise further value accretion. The share price will depend upon the relative upside expectation vs the dilutive effects of issued shares.
Management and significant Shareholders:
Matt Lodge, founder and CEO, has interests in c. 28.8% of the shares post-IPO via interests in Fidello Partners Pte. Ltd, Kaikalani Pte Ltd and Marallo Pte Ltd.
Satsuma Technology (SATS LN) has 9.192% post IPO. In their recent updated unaudited accounts RNS mod10 (account note7) the new management have this listed as “Held for sale” in the note 7 to the accounts termed Investments. This is just a technical point as it is non-core and there is no intention for any near-term sale so this should not be seen as an overhang post-IPO. Particularly as SATS have now seen the Prospectus approved by the FCAmod12 and as such they are a going concern.
Pioneer AI Foundry (Cboe CA: JPEG) 6.067%
Pioneer AI Foundry AI (JPEG) bought the Roundhouse Media Pte company in 2021 which has subsequently been rebranded as Roundhouse Digital Pte. Ltd. When Pioneer AI announced their own rebrand from Pioneer Media Holdings Inc.mgmt2 they announced how Roundhouse had secured its own funding (£250k for a 14.5% holding pre-IPO from Streaks AI in January 2025mod6) and could look to expand on their own successful development of the Arok.vc platform. This is an automated venture capital agent based on AI that uses automated methods to support and innovate on investments in the cryptocurrency and memecoin spaces. The internal re-organisation has seen Pioneer reduce its holding in ETHL to 9% and subsequently 6% post-IPO.
There has recently been a lot of criticism of Ai circular investment with Nvidia particularly investing and providing funding for a lot of its clients. This isn’t necessarily a negative and the power of a tight knit, innovative network is not to be under-estimated. It can easily be demonstrated how ETHL has evolved and is connected to a group of innovative companies, developers and shareholders.
Pioneer was originally looking to maximise gains in Solana, but have subsequently seen success in the Bitcoin Treasury market with exposure to SATS.L via a 20m subscription at 0.01GBP for a 16.1% stake in Streaks Gamingmgmt3 via a seed round at a cost of £200k (which in turn has become Streaks AI, Tao Holdings and ultimately Satsuma Technology).
Roundhouse Media (now ETHL) subscribed to a 75m share placing at 0.001GBP (£75,000) in Streaks AI for 16.53% in November 2024mod4.
Michael Edwards was a related party on both Boards
This provides JPEG and ETHL with significant exposure to their own Ethereum Treasury and SATSuma’s Bitcoin model. With SATS equally having exposure into ETHL’s Ethereum and its own Bitcoin exposure. JPEG also has Solana exposure.
Essentially, they all sit within the intersection of AI and blockchain, automated crypto trading alongside decentralised AI infrastructure and AI agents for networks like Bittensor which pays in TAO tokens and the AROK.VC which generates AROK tokens (SATS holds some on their accountsmod12 note6 cryptocurrency). In essence, Satsuma Technology evolved from a conversational AI company (StreaksAI) into a major player in decentralized AI and Bitcoin treasury management, bridging Web3 and AI.
If we now quickly look at the players then you can see how the potential for ETHL success can be considered high.
Matt Lodge CEO as we see above has been central to the convergence of these AI/crypto strings and has been involved with Pioneer and SATS predominantly, but bridging across the network.
Matt Le Cornu and Rob Mayfield, independent NEDs as the bios above suggest both bring significant corporate governance weight which was a problem recently at key holding SATS, alongside a long history of successful management and investment success.
Michael Edwards has been on both boards of Pioneer and Satsuma and overseen a lot of the connectivity between the players in the last 5 years. He was one of the founders of Argo Blockchain so is well versed in the space.
Elliot Fielding, FD ETHL, has significant experience with Flex Labs Pte Ltd and AI integration, processes and agents across industries; started with a real estate trading AI agent. He is also associated with Olivia Edwards at Astrid Intelligencemgmt4 (formerly Cel AI) where they are an artificial intelligence company developing autonomous AI agents that deliver personalised wellness and lifestyle recommendations. The Company operates a dedicated subnet on the Bittensor decentralised AI network, an open-source platform where participants share computing power, data and AI models in return for TAO token emissions. Alongside its AI operations, the Company maintains a treasury strategy that holds digital assets as a strategic reserve to support long-term capital resilience. As we have discussed they utilise an ATM facility for issuing shares at a premium to NAV. Olivia Edwards, holds a Bachelorʼs in Cognitive Systems with a focus on artificial intelligence, and also serves on the Pioneer AI Foundry board where CEO Darcy Taylormgmt5 is again at the helm. He has been a Director of Satsuma Technology Plc, former Director of Cel AI Plc and CEO of East Side Games Group Inc.. Darcy scaled his last venture from inception to $125M+ annual revenue, contributed to enterprise valuations exceeding $500M, and led $400M+ in capital raises throughout his career, including a successful exit via acquisition by WME/Endeavor. He brings expertise across FinTech, blockchain, DeFi/Crypto, mobile gaming, and digital media. Under Taylor's leadership, the company launched the Kora AI platform for treasury automation and market intelligence.
Pioneer specializes in autonomous revenue-generating AI agent solutions, which are primarily developed within its wholly owned operating subsidiary Crowdformmgmt6. Which introduces Leo Mercier, Ewan Collinge and by association Jonathan Bixby, another founder of argo blockchain and heavily invested in the agentic AI space and all three bring innovation of products and platforms particularly Cykel Ai (CYK LN) for AI agents and Sundae_Bar (SBAR) a platform for agentic AI and integrated with the Bittensor network.
These associations and partnerships focus on the intersection of revenue-generating agentic AI and DeFi. This should provide for confidence in the operating business of ETHL to be at the forefront of agentic AI solutions and hopefully follow a rapid evolution of revenues to invest into the Ethereum Treasury model.
Conclusion
Roundhouse is a strong management team in the AI and crypto space, with other associates demonstrating experience, networking and cross holdings across the whole AI and cryptocurrency eco-system from Blockchain, cryptomining, NFTs, AI agents and gaming infrastructure. Often first movers and always at the forefront of web3, de-fi and crypto treasury developments. Further exposure to a proven track record in Bitcoin Treasury with a 75m shareholding in SATS.L, Satsuma Technology where Matthew Lodge oversaw the largest crypto capital raising to grow the business and Treasury in the UK.
They are ideally placed to spot opportunities in the AI and Crypto Treasury market where the smaller players may be undervalued. These players could hold portfolios of crypto and investments and the logic of mNav suggests they could be vulnerable to takeover. Buying the market cap below NAV would be accretive and the real value could be if they hold none-crypto assets that were under-valued and could be realised at market value to create another source of funding for the fly-wheel to spin again.
The turmoil in the crypto market may have delayed Roundhouse until the optimum moment with US Regulation in early 2026 potentially a real upside kicker. If the UK can move in line on the issues we have highlighted, and quicker, then we could see some real sentiment shift in the crypto space and ETHL can move on with identifying opportunities and hopefully have a positive flywheel to play with
Ethereum’s superior performance in 2025 indicates genuine fundamental advantages: the adoption of institutional ETFs, upcoming technical enhancements, deflationary tokenomics, and its foundational role in the expanding DeFi ecosystem. The December Fusaka upgrade and ongoing institutional accumulation imply that this trend might continue well into 2026. Nevertheless, investors need to balance ETH’s higher reward potential with its elevated volatility and technical complexity.
With even MSTR seeing its mNAV under stress this is a time to tread carefully...will Saylor struggle for new lines of investor / credit line...but not under pressure to sell from anyone as has structured the capital without selling covenants...will he do a buyback or HODL only? It seems a threat is if the MSCI goes ahead with excluding them from the index in Jan/Feb and we see a crypto market under pressure with forced BTC selling. BMNR and Tom LEE meanwhile are pressing on with the Alchemy of 5% ETH and making loud noises about the upside to the Ethereum network.
There is a drive towards tokenisation and scalability of network which Ethereum sits at the centre of already. The control group of Ethereum is very active in maintaining its position and addressing the Trilemma of conflicts. The ETH price is close to at least a further breakout short term but pretty close to a fundamental and technical pivot point. Even the most adamant bears are talking about it blowing up in 2030...let’s enjoy the ride first. Roundhouse is looking to play the Ethereum DATCO model at a considered pace and inline with the current UK legislation suggesting commensurate to the operating company. They are seasoned operators in the space and should be able to identify value propositions. The irony of their SATS holding is that the outcome should help define the landscape for UK DATCOs and their efficiency of settlement straight into BTC without execution risk actually created such risk in the end. Roundhouse is effectively coming to market at a premium to mNAV but the combination of their AI and new ETH exposures should quickly realise further value and we anticipate them advancing towards our price target as the 2026 markets play out.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE APPENDIX TO THIS BROKER NOTE
Market fundamentals, demand and supply (mfx)
Note mf1 https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605102260 ETH supply
bitget.com. news detail 12560605102260 or
Ethereum Burns $18B, Yet Its Supply Keeps Growing Dec 8th 2025
Note mf2 https://blog.symbiotic.fi/demystifying-slashing/
blog.symbiotic.fi demystifying slashing
Note mf3 https://www.plus500.com/en-au/instruments/ethusd/the-history-of-ethereum~4
plus500.com instruments eth usd the history of ethereum~4
Note mf4 https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/ETH-USD/SPY
portfoliolabs.com tools stock comparison ETH-USD SPY
moomoo.com stablecoin surge incoming could ethereum benefit from this?
Note mf6 https://www.quicknode.com/guides/ethereum-development/transactions/eip4844-explained
Quicknode.com guides ethereum development transactions eip 4844 explained Nov 26th 2025
Note mf7 https://zenledger.io/blog/how-staking-is-influencing-the-crypto-economy/
Zenledger.io blog how staking is influencing the crypto economy
Note mf8 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thomasjeegers_bitcoin-dipped-20-seven-times-during-activity-7392114725532110848-HPiK/ linkedin.com thomasjeegers_bitcoin dipped 20 seven times during activity
Note mf9 https://www.mexc.co/en-GB/news/241481 Peter Schiff reiterating worthless crypto
Mexc.co en-GB news 241481 or Peter Schiff Admits Bitcoin Won’t Go To Zero In The Near Future, Softens Long-Held Stance Dec 8th 2025
Note mf10 https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/10/29/will-ethereum-outperform-bitcoin-in-2026/
forbes.com sites great speculations 29/10/2025 will ethereum outperform bitcoin in 2026
Note mf11 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fast-forward-week-12825-jurrien-timmer-9hgde/?trackingId=76waHLCFTnSuBMynML5cFw%3D%3D linkedin.com pulse fast forward week Dec 8th 2025
Not a crypto winter Standard Chartered halves 2025 bitcoin target to $100K keeps long-term bull case
Dec 9th 2025
Note mf13 https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:7d7e2c7b6094b:0-here-s-why-the-bitcoin-price-keeps-crashing-is-80-000-next/ tradingview.com news
newsbtc:7d7e2c7b6094b:0-here-s-why-the-bitcoin-price-keeps-crashing-is-80-000-next/
Note mf15 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1991571627721822367
x.com biancoresearch status 1991571627721822367 or The average purchase point of all ten BTC ETFs
bloomberg.com news articles 2025-12-12 bitcoin drifts lower with any push higher being met by fresh sellers
Note mf17 https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-ogs-covered-calls-suppressing-price
cointelegraph.com news bitcoin ogs covered calls suppressing price
Note mf18 https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-bullish-rotation-bitcoin-outflows-strategic-rebalancing-bear-market-prelude-2512/ ainvest.com news ethereum bullish rotation bitcoin outflows strategic rebalancing bear market prelude 2512 Dec 14th 2025
Note mf19 https://x.com/jjcmoreno/status/1997039064080326964 x.com jjcmoreno status 1997039064080326964 or julio romeno dolphin balance bitcoin on X Dec 5th 2025
Note mf20 https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/what-are-crypto-whales/
revolut.com blog post what are crypto whales Oct 6th 2025
Note mf21 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/manipulation-bitcoin-drops-2-000-192213571.html
Finance.yahoo.com news manipulation bitcoin drops $2000 Dec 12th 2025
Note mf22 https://bingx.com/en/news/post/nicholas-bitcoin-treasuries-afterdark-etf-filed-dec-targets-overnight-edge bingx.com news post Nicholas bitcoin treasuries afterdark etf filed dec targets overnight edge Dec 10th 2025
Note mf22-1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-pair-drops-24k-worlds-184615960.html
finance.yahoo.com / news / bitcoin pair drops 24k worlds 184615960 Date Dec 25th 2025 (scroll down through list of short linked articles)
Note mf23 https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/ethereum-price-prediction-whale-accumulation-and-etf-inflows-strengthen-bullish-case-can-eth-price-break-toward-3600-4700 bravenewcoin.com insights
Ethereum price prediction whale accumulation and etf inflws strengthen bullish case can ETH price break toward 3600-4700 Dec 14th 2025
Note mf24 https://www.tradingview.com/news/u_today:ae23f369a094b:0-never-back-down-strategy-s-saylor-reacts-to-30-bitcoin-price-plunge/ tradingview.com never back down Strategy’s saylor reacts to 30% bitcoin price plunge nov 19th 2025
Note mf25 https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1995722348666708272/photo/1
x.com biancoresearch status 1995722348666708272 MSTR below 1xmnav
Note mf26 https://coinpedia.org/news/michael-saylors-strategy-faces-delisting-risk-as-mstr-stock-drops-57/ Coinpedia.org news Michael saylors strategy faces delisting risk as mstr stock drops (MSTR out of NAS100/MSCI?)
Note mf27 https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/microstrategy-sends-sharp-warning-letter-to-msci
thestreet.com crypto markets microstrategy sends sharp warning letter to msci
Note mf28 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tom-lee-ascribes-ethereum-pain-124109205.html
Yahoo.com news Tom Lee ascribes ethereum pain Nov 18th 2025
Note mf29 https://www.theblock.co/post/382149/ethereum-bottom-tom-lee-bitmine-eth-treasury
theblock.co post 382149 ethereum bottom tom lee bitmine eth treasury Dec 11th 2025
Note mf30 https://www.tipranks.com/news/ark-invests-cathie-woods-is-adamant-that-bitcoin-will-reach-1-5m-saying-our-bull-price-really-hasnt-changed tipranks.com news ark invests cathie woods is adamant that bitcoin will reach 15m saying our bull price really hasn’t changed Nov 27th 2025
Note mf31 https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/108752121626629#
Moomoo.com community feed 108752121626629 or Cathie Wood: Ethereum Will Reach $20 Trillion Market Cap By 2030 Aug 2nd 2022
Note mf32 https://www.ainvest.com/news/ecb-president-christine-lagarde-reiterates-skepticism-bitcoin-worth-2511/ Lagarde reiterates her zero call on BTC
ainvest.com news ecb president Christine lagarde reiterates skepticism bitcoin worth zero
Note mf33 https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/closer-look-bitcoins-volatility
fidelitydigitalassets.com research and insights closer look bitcoins volatility
Market Size and issues (msx)
Note ms1 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/world-awash-in-cash-global-money-supply-surges-to-142-trillion-led-by-china-and-the-us-up-446-since-2000/articleshow/125225807.cms?from=mdr economictimes.indiatimes.com world awash in cash global money supply surges to 142 trillion lead by china and the us Nov 10th 2025
Coindesk.com non-productive gold zooms to usd30t market cap leaving bitcoin nvidia apple google far behind Oct 17th 2025
Note ms3 https://coinmarketcap.com/ coinmarketcap.com front page values in real-time
Note ms4 https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/data-analytics/en_us/documents/charts/lseg-size-of-global-market-2024-in-charts.pdf lseg.com lseg size of global market 2024 in charts
Note ms5 https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-annual-chairmans-letter
Blackrock.com corporate investor-relations Larry Fink annual chairmans letter 2025
Note ms6 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blackrock-tokenize-everything-marc-baumann-vz0de/
Linkedin.com pulse blackrock tokenise everything marc baumann Oct 20th 2025
Note ms7 https://www.theblock.co/post/377059/standard-chartered-tokenized-rwa-2-trillion-2028-ethereum theblock.co standard chartered tokenised rwa 2 trillion 2028 ethereum Oct 30th 2025
Note ms8 https://www.theblock.co/post/376969/bernstein-ethereum-treasury-firm-sharplink-eth-price-prediction theblock.co Bernstein Ethereum treasury firm sharplink eth price prediction Oct 30th 2025
Note ms9 https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2025/
A16zcrypto.com post article state of crypto report 2025 Oct 22nd 2025
Note ms10
Datco Players (dx)
Note d1 https://www.coingecko.com/learn/what-are-ethereum-treasuries-how-they-work
coingecko.com learn what are ethereum treasuries how they work
Note d2 https://recap.io/guides/building-a-bitcoin-treasury-a-step-by-step-guide-for-uk-companies
recap.io guides building a bitcoin treasury a step by step guide for uk companies
Note d3 https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/29/ether-treasury-companies-to-eventually-own-10-of-supply-standard-chartered coindesk.com ether treasury companies to eventually own 10% of supply standard chartered July 29th 2025
Note d4 https://www.youtube.com/@bellcurvepodcast/videos/ then select the video below:
Everything You Need to Know About Crypto Treasury Companies With Jeff Park OCT 25
Note d5 https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/datco-report-2025
coingecko.com research publications datco report 2025
Note d6 https://www.coingecko.com/en/treasuries/ethereum
coingecko.com en treasuries ethereum real-time website
Note d7 https://www.theblock.co/post/382552/tom-lee-bitmine-adds-321-million-ether-corporate-treasury
theblock.co post 382552 tom Lee bitmine adds 321 million ether corporate treasury Dec 15th 2025
Note d8 https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/BMNR/424b5-bit-mine-immersion-technologies-inc-prospectus-supplement-debt--3f3e53883683.html stocktitan.net sec-filings BMNR 424b5-bit-mine-immersion-technologies-inc-prospectus-supplement-debt 12th Aug 2025
Note d9 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bitmine-immersion-bmnr-announces-1-billion-stock-repurchase-program-302515955.html prnewswire.com news releases bitmine immersion bmnr announces 1 billion stock repurchase program July 29th 2025
Note d10 https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/tom-lee-bitmine-chairman-touts-ethereum-scarcity/
Dlnews.com articles markets tom lee bitmine chairman touts ethereum scarcity Aug. 1st 2025
Note d11 https://thedefiant.io/news/research-and-opinion/galaxy-digital-warns-crypto-treasury-firms-create-structurally-fragile-market thedefiant.io news research and opinion galaxy-digital-warns-treasury-firms-create-structurally-fragile-market Aug 1st 2025
Note d12 https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605113593
bitget.com / news / detail / 12560605113593 OR SharpLink Hits 9,241 ETH Staking Rewards Since June 2025, 100% Ethereum Staked in Institutional-Grade Strategy Date 16th Dec 2025
Note d13 https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/18/ethereums-biggest-wall-street-bull-ups-stock-sale-to-6b-to-power-eth-treasury coindesk.com / markets / ethereums biggest wall street bull ups stock sale to 6bn to power eth treasury 18th July 2025
Regulation
Note R1 https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5596644-binance-ceo-trump-pardon-connection/
thehill.com homenews administration binance ceo trump pardon connection 11th Aug 2025
Note R2 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-market-structure-bill-clarity-193623383.html
finance.yahoo.com news does market structure bill clarity Dec 5th 2025
Note R3 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-doubles-down-crypto-ban-134205196.html
Finance.yahoo.com China doubles down on crypto ban Dec 1st 2025
Note R4 https://www.fastbull.com/brokersview/news/belarus-escalates-crackdown-major-crypto-platforms-suddenly-blocked-amid-regulatory-shift-317377 Fastbull.com Belarus escalates crackdown major crypto platforms suddenly blocked amid regulatory shift Dec 12th 2025
Note R5 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-cracks-down-25-crypto-131335174.html
Finance.yahoo.com India cracks down 25 crypto Oct 2nd 2025
Note R6 https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-liquidity-is-drying-up-in-specific-regions-as-a-new-pay-to-exit-model-quietly-takes-over/ cryptoslate.com bitcoin liquidity is drying up in specific regions as a new pay to exit model quietly takes over Dec 11th 2025
Note R7 https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/stocks-jump-before-crypto-treasury-moves-regulators-raise-red-flags/ financemagnates.com trending stocks jump before crypto treasury moves regulators raise red flags Sep 26th 2025
Note R8 https://beincrypto.com/market-structure-bill-clarity-act-2026-hurdles/
Beingcrypto.com market structure bill Clarity Act 2026 hurdles Dec 5th 2025
Note R9 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/big-bank-ceos-to-meet-with-senators-to-discuss-crypto-market-regulation/ar-AA1RXtAC msn.com big bank ceos to meet with senators to discuss crypto market regulation Dec 9th 2025
theblock.co. moody’s proposes stablecoin ratings framework focused on reserve quality Dec 12th 2025
Note R11 https://cryptoslate.com/sec-is-done-with-crypto-removes-all-mention-from-its-agenda-for-2026/
Cryptoslate.com sec is done with crypto removes all mention from its agenda for 2026 Nov 18th 2025
Note R12 https://www.theblock.co/post/381987/sec-chair-atkins-signals-crypto-priorities-in-new-year
theblock.co SEC chair Atkins signals crypto priorities in new year Dec9th 2025
cliffordchance.com debt securities under the new uk prospectus and poatr regime the final picture July25
aqx-web-prod-s3-public-read.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com Aquis_Cryptoassets_Policy_Oct_2025_v1_0633ac4bb0.pdf p3 section 2.1.7
Note R15 https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-opens-retail-access-crypto-etns
fca.org news press-releases fca opens retail access crypto etns
Esma.europa.eu esmas activities digital finance and innovation markets crypto assets regulation mica
Note R17a https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2025/cp/proposed-regulatory-regime-for-sterling-denominated-systemic-stablecoins Nov 10th 2025
bankofengland.co.uk paper 2025 cp proposed regulatory regime for sterling denominated systemic stablecoins
centralbanking.com fintech crypto assets bailey joins calls for alignments Oct 15th 2025
Note R18 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawmakers-bank-england-stablecoin-proposals-154825525.html
finance.yahoo.com lawmakers bank England stablecoin proposals Dec 12th 2025
Note R19 https://www.richardsonlissack.co.uk/publication/the-rise-of-the-cryptocurrency-treasury-company-a-regulatory-blind-spot-outside-the-uk-financial-conduct-authoritys-firing-line/ A brave New CryptoAsset Regulatory World richardsonlissack.co.uk publication the rise of the cryptocurrency treasury company a regulatory blindspot outside the uk financial conduct authoritys firing line
Note R20 https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/information-firms-offer-crypto-exchange-traded-notes
fca.org.uk news information firms offer crypto exchange traded notes 27th Oct 2025
Note R21 https://www.wisdomtree.eu/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/faq/uk-crypto-retail-faq.pdf?sc_lang=en-gb wisdomtree.eu uk crypto retail faq 17th October 2025
Model (modx)
Note mod1 https://www.roundhousedigital.ai/ company website
Roundhousedigital.ai
Note mod2 https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/astrid-intelligence-plc--astr/subscription-intention-to-apply-for-otc-listing/9095041 investigate.co.uk astrid intelligence / subscription intention to apply for otc listing Sep 9th 2025
Note mpd3 https://www.iras.gov.sg/taxes/corporate-income-tax/income-deductions-for-companies/taxable-non-taxable-income iras.gov.sg taxes corporate income tax income deductions for companies taxable non-taxable income
Note mod4 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/STK/issue-of-equity-and-pdmr/16774536 strategic stake in SATS LN
londonstockexchange.com news article STK issue of equity and pdmr 16774536
Note mod5 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SATS/tr-1-notification/16782372
londonstockexchange.com news article SATS tr-1 notification 16782372
Note mod6 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SATSUMA-TECHNOLOGY-PLC-148945006/news/Roundhouse-Media-Pte-Ltd-announced-that-it-has-received-0-25-million-in-funding-from-StreaksAI-PLC-48779373/ marketscreener.com quote stock SATSUMA-TECHNOLOGY-PLC-148945006
Roundhouse Media Pte Ltd announcement that it has received 0.125m in funding from Streaks AI PLC
Jan 14th 2025
Note mod7 https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/satsuma-technology-plc--sats/second-cln-raises-gross-proceeds-of-163-6m-/9031312 oversubscribed
investigate.co.uk announcement rns satsuma technology plc sats second cln raises gross proceeds of 163.6m 9031312
investigate.co.uk announcement rns satsuma technology plc sats update on prospectus and discussions with the fca
Note mod9 www.satsuma.digital/investors 01/09/2025 Interim Results to 8 August 2025
satsuma.digital investors then select the interim results update to 8th august 2025
Note mod10 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SATS/unaudited-interim-results/17350039
londonstockexchange.com SATS unaudited interim results 28th November 2025
Note mod11 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SATS/proposed-board-changes-and-sale-of-bitcoin/17368419 londonstockexchange.com SATS proposed board changes and sale of bitcoin 11th December 2025
Note mod12 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SATS/publication-of-prospectus/17378797 londonstockexchange.com news-article / SATS / publication of prospectus / 17378797 17th Dec 2025
Valuations (vx)
melanion.digital blog2 of the series deconstructing the mnav premium what is it and what drives bitcoin treasury valuation
Note v2 https://melanion.digital/bitcoin-treasury-flywheel-value-creation/
melanion.digital bitcoin treasury flywheel value creation
Note v3 https://www.xbto.com/resources/datcos-explained-the-rise-of-digital-asset-treasury-companies
xbto.com resources datcos explained the rise of digital asset treasury companies
Galaxy.com insights research digital asset treasury companies
galaxy.com insights research why are bitcoin treasury companies trading at such high premiums to nav
Note v6 https://qubit.capital/blog/ai-startup-valuation-multiples qubit.capital / blog / AI Startup Valuation Multiples 2025: Benchmarks & Strategies Dec 9th 2025
Note v6-1 https://aventis-advisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/AI-Valuation-Multiples-2025-1.pdf
Aventis-advisors.com wp-content / uploads / 2025 /06 /AI-valuation multiples 2025-1.pdf 30th June 2025
Note v6-2 https://aventis-advisors.com/saas-valuation-multiples/#multiples
Aventis-advisors.com / saas-valuation-multiples/#multiples October 16th 2025
Note v7 https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/maturation-digital-assets
Fidelitydigitalassets.com / research and insights/ maturation digital assets Oct 9th 2025
Management and significant shareholders (mgmtx)
Note mgmt1a ETHL IPO deck https://www.roundhousedigital.ai/investors
roundhousedigital.ai investors then select Admission Prospectus Jan 27th, 2026
Note mgmt1b Constitution https://www.roundhousedigital.ai/investors
Roundhousedigital.ai investors then select Constitution Jan27th 2026
Note mgmt1c Admission and first day of dealings https://www.aquis.eu/stock-exchange/announcements/5575658 aquis.eu / stock-exchange / announcements / 5575658 Jan 30, 2026
Note mgmt2 https://www.p10neer.ai/news (select) Pioneer Media Holdings Inc. Announces Change of Name as Part of Strategic Realignment p10neer.ai / news / Feb 13th 2025
Note mgmt3 https://www.p10neer.ai/news (select) Pioneer Announces Investments in Two Portfolio Companies p10neer.ai / news / Aug 11th 2021
Note mgmt4 https://www.aquis.eu/stock-exchange/announcements/5346321
aquis.eu / stock-exchange / announcements / 5346321 OR Astrid Intelligence - Fast-Track Admission to the AQSE Growth Market 1st September 2025
Note mgmt5 https://www.p10neer.ai/team#:~:text=Darcy%20Taylor,(TSX:%20EAGR).
Pioneer.ai team Darcy Taylor
Note mgmt6 https://crowdform.studio/blog/crowdform-joins-pioneer/
Crowdform.studio / blog / crowdform joins pioneer 5th May 2022
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